中国农业科学2025，Vol.58Issue(24)：5299-5314,16.DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2025.24.015
全球农业农村现代化的演变趋势与影响因素
Evolutionary Trends and Influencing Factors of Global Agricultural and Rural Modernization
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Agricultural and rural modernization needs to be grounded in both general global patterns and unique Chinese characteristics.From a global perspective,investigating its evolutionary trends and influencing factors is of great significance for advancing China's comprehensive rural revitalization.[Method]This study constructed an evaluation index system incorporating two dimensions:agricultural modernization and rural modernization.Based on the measurement of agricultural and rural development levels in 152 countries from 2000 to 2022,three-dimensional kernel density estimation and spatial Gini coefficient were employed to reveal the evolutionary trends of global agricultural and rural modernization.Furthermore,the optimal-parameter geographical detector was utilized to identify the intensity and interaction effects of socio-economic and agricultural factors.[Result]Over the past two decades,global agricultural and rural modernization level has shown a steady upward trend.The gap between low-income and middle-income countries has been narrowing annually,yet a substantial gap with high-income countries persists.China has made remarkable progress in its agricultural and rural modernization,with its international ranking climbing from 78th to 57th.Regarding general patterns,economic development level remained a key driver.The roles of industrial structure and agricultural trade openness have become increasingly prominent.The contribution of agricultural technological progress remained important but exhibited a diminishing marginal trend,while the impact of agricultural land use structure was characterized by long-term complexity.In terms of differentiated patterns,informatization level was the primary driver for low-and lower-middle-income countries to achieve catch-up,whereas its influence diminished in upper-middle-and high-income countries.Population aging has become the dominant constraint hindering agricultural and rural modernization in middle-income countries,with a relatively minor impact on high-income countries.Environmental protection intensity showed significant differentiated effects across different income groups.The proportion of negative interaction effects between factors in low-income country groups has significantly decreased.Interaction effects among factors in lower-middle-income country groups have entirely transitioned to positive synergistic effects.Synergistic enhancement effects were prevalent among factors in upper-middle-income and high-income country groups.This indicated that the spatial-temporal differentiation of global agricultural and rural modernization was a result of the combined influence of socio-economic and agricultural factors.[Conclusion]In advancing comprehensive rural revitalization,China should adhere to a"dual-driven"approach of concurrently promoting agricultural modernization and rural modernization.It was crucial to coordinate the relationships among economic development,social progress,and environmental protection to ultimately achieve integrated urban-rural development.关键词
农业农村现代化/农业现代化/农村现代化/全球规律/中国特色Key words
agricultural and rural modernization development/agricultural modernization/rural modernization/global patterns/Chinese characteristics引用本文复制引用
WANG Wei,CHEN YangFen..全球农业农村现代化的演变趋势与影响因素[J].中国农业科学,2025,58(24):5299-5314,16.基金项目
国家社科基金重大项目(21&ZD093)、教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(23JZD008)、中国农业科学院科学中心重大任务(CAAS-CSAERD-202402)、中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-04-2025) （21&ZD093）
