中国农业大学学报2025，Vol.30Issue(12)：1-11,11.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2025.12.01
不同气候变化情景下北方农牧交错带轮作模式定向设计
Targeted design of crop rotation patterns in agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China under different climate change scenarios:A case study of Zhangbei County,Hebei Province
摘要
Abstract
To address climate warming and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events,this study aimed to design and optimize cropping patterns for agricultural production in agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China.Based on long-term field trial data on 11 crop rotation patterns for 4 crops in Zhangbei County,Hebei Province,the APSIM model(Agricultural production systems simulator),which had been calibrated and validated,was employed to simulate the yields of 228 crop rotation patterns under 8 climate scenarios(3 warming scenarios,3 extreme precipitation scenarios,and 2 coupled scenarios of warming and extreme precipitation)in the region.Subsequently,the production capacity,ecological,and economic benefits of different crop rotation patterns were compared and analyzed through life cycle assessment,carbon footprint assessment,and input-output methods analysis.The results indicated that rising temperatures reduced the average 10 years total energy equivalent yield,average 10 years total comprehensive income,and average soil carbon sequestration across 228 crop rotation patterns,with respective reductions of 9.85％-38.02％,13.61％-54.99％,26.25％-85.08％.In contrast,rising temperatures increased the average 10 years total net carbon emissions of 228 crop rotation patterns by 51.19％-165.89％.Under the scenarios of temperature rise coupled with extreme precipitation,the faba bean-oat rotation pattern had the highest 10 years total energy equivalent yield,the potato-faba bean rotation pattern had the lowest 10 years total net carbon emissions,and the faba bean-potato rotation pattern had the highest 10 years total comprehensive income.However,with the increase in extreme precipitation intensity,the yield increasing,income increasing,and emission reduction capabilities of the 228 crop rotation patterns all decreased.The findings of this study provide scientific basis for formulating multi-objective and coordinated diversified cropping strategies in agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China,ensuring food security under climate change and promoting sustainable agricultural development.关键词
极端气候变化/中低产田/多样化轮作模式/APSIM模型/多目标需求Key words
extreme climate changes/low-yield fields/diversified crop rotation patterns/APSIM model/multi-objective demands分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
WANG Sijia,JIA Rong,ZANG Huadong,GE Junyong,CAO Lixia,LI Yue,JIN Junli,WU Di..不同气候变化情景下北方农牧交错带轮作模式定向设计[J].中国农业大学学报,2025,30(12):1-11,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD1901100) （2022YFD1901100）
