中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(10)：55-65,11.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250305
"双碳"目标与经济社会协同发展的时空演化与驱动力
Spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of synergistic development between the"dual carbon"goals and economy and society:based on the perspective of carbon reduction through the synergy of"production-living-ecological spaces"
摘要
Abstract
Promoting the synergistic development between the"dual carbon"goals and the economy and society is an important focal point for building a new pattern of Chinese modernization characterized by harmony between humanity and nature.Based on the theory of synergistic development of the functions of"production-living-ecological spaces,"this study constructed an indicator system from three dimensions:production space synergy,living space synergy,and ecological space synergy,to measure the level of synergistic de-velopment between the"dual carbon"goals and the economy and society in Chinese provincial areas from 2013 to 2022.On this basis,the study employed standard deviation ellipses,random kernel density estimation,and geographic detectors to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of the level of synergistic development between the"dual carbon"goals and economy and society.The study found that:① The level of synergistic development showed a significant upward trend during the study period,with a spatial distribution pattern of"high in the east and low in the west,strong in the south and weak in the north."However,as time pro-gressed,the center of gravity of the spatial distribution of the synergistic development between the"dual carbon"goals and the economy and society gradually shifted to the southwest,showing a spatial evolution trend of"west advancing,east retreating,and south advanc-ing,north retreating,"and the catching-up effect of the low-level provinces was increasingly visible.② Without considering spatial con-ditions,the level of synergistic development exhibited strong persistence and was not prone to state transitions in a short period of time.Considering spatial conditions,regardless of whether the effect of the temporal factor was included,no significant spatial correlation was found between low-level and high-level provinces and neighboring provinces.However,there was a positive spatial correlation between medium-level provinces and their neighboring provinces,but the inclusion of the temporal factor could reduce this interaction.③ The spatial divergence in the level of synergistic development between the"dual-carbon"goals and the economy and society was the result of a combination of multiple drivers.Digital push and market pull played a dominant role in this process.The interaction of any two driv-ers had a much greater impact on the imbalance of synergistic development than a single driver.In particular,the strength of the digital push in combination with other factors continued to increase since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.This shows that achieving the synergistic development between the"dual carbon"goals and the economy and society requires integrating the"dual carbon"goals into the"production-living-ecological spaces,"building a regional coordinated development pattern,and actively exploring the practical path of low-carbon transformation of the economy and society empowered by digital technology.关键词
"双碳"目标/协同发展/随机核密度/地理探测器Key words
"dual carbon"goals/synergistic development/random kernel density/geographic detector分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
LI Xuhui,LUO Xuan,PANG Zhenghu.."双碳"目标与经济社会协同发展的时空演化与驱动力[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(10):55-65,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"我国数字化绿色化协同转型发展评价及推进策略研究"(批准号:22BJY262). （批准号:22BJY262）
