中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(10)：66-79,14.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250615
新质生产力的测度及其对工业碳减排的影响
Measurement of new quality productive forces and their impact on industrial carbon emission reduction in China
摘要
Abstract
The industrial sector is the primary source of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China,making industrial carbon emission reduction an exceptionally severe challenge.The proposal of the concept of new quality productive forces bears significant practical implications for reducing industrial carbon emissions.Based on the Marxist theory of productive forces and the fundamental connotations of new quality productive forces,this study established a theoretical analysis framework encompassing the constituent ele-ments and essential characteristics of new quality productive forces,along with a corresponding measurement index system.Using the Entropy Weight-TOPSIS method and the Dagum Gini coefficient approach,it measured and analyzed the development level and region-al disparities of new quality productive forces in China from 2010 to 2022,and then empirically examined the impact of new quality pro-ductive forces on industrial carbon emission reduction.The results showed that:① Nationally,the overall level of new quality produc-tive forces steadily improved,and both the total index and the sub-indices exhibited a pronounced steady upward trend.② Across the four major regions,the overall level of new quality productive forces consistently rose and displayed a gradient distribution from east to west.The eastern region had the highest level,the central region ranked second,the western region ranked third,and the northeast re-gion ranked last.③ The overall Gini coefficient of new quality productive forces was relatively low and fluctuated in a wave-like pat-tern.There were evident regional disparities,but their magnitude was low and mainly attributable to interregional differences.④ Empir-ical results demonstrated that the new quality productive forces could promote industrial carbon emission reduction.The System GMM and Difference GMM estimation results indicated that endogeneity issues were effectively controlled,and this conclusion remained ro-bust after multiple robustness checks.⑤ Mechanism analysis revealed that new quality productive forces primarily promoted industrial carbon emission reduction by driving corporate digital transformation and green technological innovation.⑥ Heterogeneity analysis showed that the inhibitory effect of new quality productive forces on industrial carbon emission varied regionally:it was strong and sig-nificant in central and western regions but weak and nonsignificant in eastern and northeast regions.Accordingly,to provide theoretical reference for the regional development of new quality productive forces and to promote industrial northeast emission reduction,this study proposes policy recommendations in three aspects:developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions,accel-erating corporate digital transformation,and encouraging green technology innovation.关键词
新质生产力/工业碳减排/企业数字化转型/绿色技术创新Key words
new quality productive forces/industrial carbon emission reduction/corporate digital transformation/green technology in-novation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
HU Jianbo,SUN Jinliang..新质生产力的测度及其对工业碳减排的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(10):66-79,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"中国隐含碳全要素生产率动态演进与提升策略研究"(批准号:23XJY022). （批准号:23XJY022）
