中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(10)：91-102,12.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250623
长江经济带城市空间形态演变对碳排放的影响
Impacts of urban spatial form evolution on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
摘要
Abstract
Based on urban land use remote sensing data and carbon emissions data,this study used landscape pattern indices to mea-sure multi-dimensional morphological indices of 110 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2022,such as expansion degree,agglomeration degree,and complexity.The study empirically tested the emission reduction effect of urban spatial morphology from two aspects of total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity through a panel regression model.The find-ings indicated that:① From 2006 to 2022,the primary land use types in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were forest land(comprising over 50%),cultivated land(accounting for approximately 33%),and grassland(making up about 9%).Driven by urbanization,the pro-portion of construction land rose from 2.16%to 3.52%,with over 85%of new construction land originating from the conversion of culti-vated land,followed by forest land and grassland,leading to a continuous decline in carbon sink land types.② During the study period,the expansion degree and complexity of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased by 116.73%and 58.97%,respectively,while the agglomeration degree decreased by 11.59%,with notable regional disparities.③ From 2006 to 2022,the average carbon emis-sions of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt surged by 89.25%,whereas carbon emission intensity dropped by 57.61%.As region-al development centers,the total carbon emissions of provincial capital cities were higher than those of non-provincial capital cities,but due to their advantages in high-tech industries and producer services,their carbon emission intensity was lower than that of non-provin-cial capital cities.④ Generally,increases in urban expansion degree and complexity tended to elevate both urban carbon emissions and intensity,whereas enhanced urban agglomeration degree reduced them.Heterogeneity analysis further revealed that while increases in expansion degree and decreases in agglomeration degree in provincial capital cities did not significantly affect their total carbon emis-sions,they significantly elevated carbon emission intensity.Regardless of whether cities were provincial capital cities or non-provincial capital cities,urban morphology complexity promoted the total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity.Based on these find-ings,this study proposes policy recommendations for energy conservation and carbon reduction,focusing on smart urban growth,com-pact planning,and agglomeration development,along with differentiated strategies for provincial capital cities emphasizing"efficiency-based emission reduction"and non-provincial capital cities prioritizing"total emission reduction."These measures aim to support Chi-na's goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality.关键词
城市空间形态/碳排放总量/碳排放强度/行政等级Key words
urban spatial form/total carbon emissions/carbon emission intensity/administrative level分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
NIU Shuchen,LUO Xiang,QIN Jingjing,CHENG Chao..长江经济带城市空间形态演变对碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(10):91-102,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"区域相对贫困视角下农村公共投资的空间福利:异质性、影响机制及政策含义"(批准号:42171286) （批准号:42171286）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于空间贫困的农村公共支出减贫效应:周期波动、吸收能力及政策治理"(批准号:71974071) （批准号:71974071）
武汉工程大学科学研究基金项目"可持续发展视角下土地集约开发助推城市韧性发展的机理及政策调适研究"(批准号:K2024035). （批准号:K2024035）
