中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(10)：181-193,13.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250128
中国生态福利绩效评价及影响机制研究:基于城乡要素双向流动视角
Evaluation of China's ecological welfare performance and the impact mechanisms of urban-rural factor bidirectional flow
摘要
Abstract
Whether the bidirectional flow of urban-rural factors as a process of factor reallocation can affect the improvement of ecolog-ical welfare performance remains an unknown question.This study,based on the changes in ecological welfare performance of 27 prov-inces in China from 2011 to 2022 and the corresponding bidirectional flows of human,capital,and industrial factors,applied DEA,IV-Tobit,mediator effect,and the machine learning model to analyze the impact and internal mechanisms of the bidirectional flow of urban-rural factors on the improvement of ecological welfare performance.The results found that:① Varying degrees of loss in ecological wel-fare performance were observed in China,with ecological welfare performance at both national and provincial levels showing significant fluctuations.② Overall,the urban-rural bidirectional flow of factors could significantly enhance performance.③ The impact of specific factors and their characteristics exhibited variability.The urban-rural bidirectional human flow trend could enhance performance through the improvement of internal growth effects and factor reallocation effects,whereas urbanization rate primarily contributed to per-formance via internal growth effects.The proportion of rural capital stock positively influenced performance solely through triggering positive internal growth effects.However,the urban-rural bidirectional diffusion of industries was not conducive to performance im-provement.In contrast,a higher concentration of manufacturing in urban areas could enhance performance through both internal growth effects and factor reallocation effects.④ The results of the feature importance analysis based on the random forest model showed that compared with other existing influencing factors,the bidirectional flow of urban-rural factors had mostly the same degree of influence,but there were differences in the ranking of importance for different types of factor flow.Based on the above conclusions,it is recom-mended that a balanced emphasis should be placed on both orderly urbanization and the return of populations to rural areas,with partic-ular attention paid to the industrial empowering,technological spillover,and knowledge diffusion attributes of the capital and human factors involved in this return.In the implementation process,it is necessary to pre-evaluate the technological diffusion value of capital and human factor return,as well as the subsequent industrial models.The spatial agglomeration of dominant industries in both urban and rural areas should be maintained.Scientific and reasonable urban-rural factor bidirectional flow mechanisms should be formed to trigger the positive internal growth effects and factor reallocation effects,thus leading to the improvement of ecological welfare perfor-mance.关键词
城乡要素流动/要素再配置/生态福利绩效Key words
urban-rural factor flow/factor reallocation/ecological welfare performance分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
SHENG Rong..中国生态福利绩效评价及影响机制研究:基于城乡要素双向流动视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(10):181-193,13.基金项目
上海市哲学社会科学规划课题"上海市生态产品高效供给与福利效应研究"(批准号:2022BCK004) （批准号:2022BCK004）
中央高校基本科研业务费项目"上海市生态产品供给效率与影响因素研究"(批准号:2022ECNU-XWK-ZX10). （批准号:2022ECNU-XWK-ZX10）
