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基于创新趋势分析方法的三门峡库区降水变异分析

TAO Jie WEI Weijia ZHANG Yushun XU Linjuan ZUO Qiting

郑州大学学报（工学版）2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：11-17,72,8.

郑州大学学报（工学版）2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：11-17,72,8.DOI:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2026.01.007

基于创新趋势分析方法的三门峡库区降水变异分析

Analysis of Precipitation Variability in Sanmenxia Reservoir Area Based on Innovative Trend Analysis Methods

TAO Jie ¹WEI Weijia ²ZHANG Yushun ³XU Linjuan ⁴ZUO Qiting¹

作者信息

1. School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China||Henan International Joint Laboratory of Water Cycle Simulation and Environmental Protection,Zhengzhou 450001,China
2. School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China
3. Henan Provincial Water Conservan-cy Science and Technology Application Center,Zhengzhou 450000,China
4. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China||Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and Estuary Regulation,MWR,Zhengzhou 450003,China||Yellow River Laboratory,Zhengzhou 450003,China
折叠

摘要

Abstract

In response to the unclear mechanism of precipitation variation in the Sanmenxia Reservoir area of the Yellow River Basin and the difficulty of traditional trend analysis methods in capturing internal structural changes in the sequence,innovative trend analysis(ITA),innovative polygon trend analysis(IPTA),and innovative trend pivot analysis method(ITPAM)were comprehensively applied to systematically analyze the multi-scale variation characteristics of the precipitation sequence at the Sanmenxia weather station from 1957 to 2020.And they were compared with traditional trend testing methods such as the Mann-Kendall trend test.The results showed that both the annual precipitation at the Sanmenxia weather station and the high-value category showed a significant downward trend,with a statistic S=-1.031.The overall change in the monthly average precipitation over many years was re-latively uniform,but from July to September,a compound pattern of"trend reduction-large variation-high risk le-vel"emerged.The maximum both 1 d and 5 d precipitation showed a significant downward trend,but the precipita-tion intensity significantly increased(S=0.069),indicating a transformation of the regional precipitation pattern towards"low frequency high intensity".Compared with traditional methods,the innovative trend analysis methods could better identify and detaily analyze different time scales,different value zones,and different risk levels of time series,and had greater flexibility advantages.

关键词

降水指标/创新趋势分析/创新多边形趋势分析/创新趋势枢轴分析法/三门峡库区

Key words

precipitation index/innovative trend analysis/innovative polygon trend analysis/innovative trend pivot analysis method/Sanmenxia Reservoir area

分类

天文与地球科学

引用本文复制引用

TAO Jie,WEI Weijia,ZHANG Yushun,XU Linjuan,ZUO Qiting..基于创新趋势分析方法的三门峡库区降水变异分析[J].郑州大学学报（工学版）,2026,47(1):11-17,72,8.

基金项目

国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3211301) （2024YFC3211301）

河南省科技攻关项目(232102320032) （232102320032）

河南省重大科技专项(231100320100) （231100320100）

郑州大学学报（工学版）

ISSN：1671-6833

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