海洋科学2025，Vol.49Issue(6)：64-76,13.DOI:10.11759/hykx20250112001
竞争态视角下我国海洋经济高质量发展的格局演化与趋势预测
Pattern evolution and trend prediction of high-quality devel-opment of China's marine economy from the competitive state perspective
摘要
Abstract
Based on panel data from 11 coastal provinces from 2010 to 2021,this study explores the temporal changes and spatial patterns of high-quality development of China's marine economy using competitive state mod-els and kernel density analysis.In addition,this study constructs traditional and spatial Markov probability transi-tion matrices to predict long-term evolution trends.The research findings are as follows:(1)Regions with ad-vantages in high-quality marine economic development are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta,and the Bohai Rim Economic Zone.Among them,Liaoning,Shandong,Zhejiang,Fujian,and Guangdong maintain high-quality cycles;Tianjin,Hebei,and Guangxi are in low-quality cycles;and Hainan has achieved leap-frog development,transitioning from a thin dog to a young child type and then to a star and Taurus type.(2)From 2010 to 2021,interprovincial differences in the high-quality development level of the national marine economy initially increased and then decreased.The number of high-level provinces has significantly increased,and the per-formance of low-level provinces has also improved,leading to enhanced balance.(3)High-quality development of the national marine economy presents a balanced trend between the north and south.The south is led by Zhejiang,Fujian,and Guangdong,whereas the north is supported by Shandong's high-level performance.(4)The probability of maintaining the original state of high-quality development of the national marine economy in the future is high,with the phenomenon of"club convergence"—tending toward convergence at low and high development levels.关键词
竞争态/海洋经济高质量发展/时空演变/趋势预测/马尔科夫链Key words
competitive state/high-quality marine economic development/spatiotemporal evolution/trend prediction/Markov chain分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
贺义雄,陈珂炜,李小虎..竞争态视角下我国海洋经济高质量发展的格局演化与趋势预测[J].海洋科学,2025,49(6):64-76,13.基金项目
2024浙江文化研究工程项目"习近平新时代海洋强国重要论述在浙江探索与实践"(24WH02-5Z)2024 Zhejiang Cultural Research Project"Exploration and Practice of XI Jinping Important Discussions on a New Era Maritime Power in Zhejiang Province",No.24WH02-5Z （24WH02-5Z）
