极地研究2025，Vol.37Issue(4)：742-756,15.DOI:10.13679/j.jdyj.20240028
基于FIO-CPS v1.0对北极夏季海冰预测能力的评估
Assessment of FIO-CPS v1.0 Arctic summer sea ice prediction skill
摘要
Abstract
As the climate warms in the Arctic region,the sea ice extent(SIE)in the Arctic Ocean is rapidly decreas-ing and retreating northward,making Arctic sea ice forecasting increasingly important for scientific expedi-tions and commercial navigability assessments.This study utilizes hindcast data from the First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System(FIO-CPS)v1.0.After applying bias correction to the Arctic sea ice predictions,the system's predictive capability for summer(June-September)Arctic sea ice extent and sea ice concentration(SIC)was evaluated.The evaluation results indicate that:(1)There is a systematic bias in the FIO-CPS v1.0 predictions of summer Arctic SIE.After bias correction,the prediction performance improves significantly,with the most notable improvement observed in July;(2)Following bias correction,FIO-CPS v1.0 demonstrates good performance in predicting Arctic SIE,with root mean square errors for both monthly and daily predictions below 0.5×106 km2,and anomaly correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7;(3)The predic-tion skill of FIO-CPS v1.0 is significantly higher than that of linear trend climatology predictions and,to some extent,superior to damped anomaly persistence predictions.However,this advantage gradually diminishes as the lead time increases;(4)During years with extremely low Arctic SIE,the prediction performance of FIO-CPS v1.0 is relatively weaker,but it still holds a significant advantage over linear trend climatology pre-dictions;(5)After bias correction,FIO-CPS v1.0 also exhibits high predictive capability for SIC,with the root mean square error of predicted sea ice concentration generally below 30%.关键词
短期气候预测系统/FIO-CPS v1.0/海冰预测能力评估/海冰密集度/北极Key words
short-term climate prediction system/FIO-CPS v1.0/assessment of sea ice prediction skills/sea ice concentration/Arctic引用本文复制引用
谭啸,张录军,宋振亚,舒启..基于FIO-CPS v1.0对北极夏季海冰预测能力的评估[J].极地研究,2025,37(4):742-756,15.基金项目
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(2023S01)、国家自然科学基金(42175172)和山东省自然科学基金(ZR2022JQ17)资助 （2023S01）
