建筑结构学报2025，Vol.46Issue(12)：31-43,13.DOI:10.14006/j.jzjgxb.2025.0062
强震区建筑全生命周期概率隐含碳排放评估
Probabilistic life-cycle embodied carbon emission assessment of buildings in strong earthquake zones
摘要
Abstract
To overcome the limitations of current life-cycle embodied carbon(EC)assessment methods under seismic scenarios,this study proposed an environmental impact assessment framework specifically developed for structures in earthquake-prone regions.The framework accounted for seismic risk and various uncertainties and a comparative study of the life-cycle probabilistic environmental impacts was conducted for shape memory alloy self-centering steel frames(SMAF)and conventional concentrically braced steel frames(CBF).The life-cycle assessment of embodied carbon included component production,construction,operation and maintenance,and earthquake-induced embodied carbon emissions.Seismic effects were quantified using incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)to obtain engineering demand parameters,which were subsequently integrated with collapse,residual deformation,component fragility functions,and site-specific seismic hazard curves to determine the life-cycle carbon emission levels.The results indicate that over a 100-year service period,the mean life-cycle embodied carbon of the SMAF system is approximately 7 400 t,representing a reduction of about 17％compared with the CBF.Moreover,the carbon emission distribution of SMAF is more concentrated and exhibits less fluctuation,reflecting a slight increase in manufacturing-stage emissions but long-term reduction benefits during seismic events and maintenance.Sensitivity analysis shows that seismic intensity is the dominant factor influencing carbon emissions for both systems;however,SMAF is affected by the combined influence of multiple parameters,whereas CBF is primarily governed by a single seismic factor.The findings suggest that SMAF should be preferentially adopted in regions of high seismic intensity or in high-rise buildings.Furthermore,probabilistic carbon assessment and sensitivity analysis are recommended during the design stage to enable structural decisions that balance seismic resilience and low-carbon performance.关键词
全生命周期/隐含碳排放/形状记忆合金自复位支撑/蒙特卡洛分析/自复位支撑钢框架/传统中心支撑钢框架Key words
life-cycle/embodied carbon(EC)emission/shape memory alloy self-centering brace/Monte Carlo analysis/self-centering braced frame/conventional concentrically braced frame分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
平博彦,方成,平奕炜,于盛鑫..强震区建筑全生命周期概率隐含碳排放评估[J].建筑结构学报,2025,46(12):31-43,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52378177). （52378177）
