农业资源与环境学报2026，Vol.43Issue(1)：52-64,13.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2024.0798
基于粮食生产能力的耕地非粮化时空演变规律研究
Research on the spatial-temporal evolution law of non-grain production of cultivated land based on grain production capacity
摘要
Abstract
The non-grain production of cultivated land(NGP)affects the sustainability of grain production.The grain production potential(GPP)is the maximum grain yield that can be achieved under climatic conditions,which can reflect the regional grain production capacity.Analyzing the pattern of NGP through the perspective of GPP helps determine whether these changes support or hinder grain production.This study used the elasticity coefficient method to examine relative change trends between the NGP and GPP.And by setting up counterfactual scenarios and constructing regression models,we explored the loss of total potential grain production(ΔTGP)caused by NGP and its impact on actual grain yield.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the level of NGP in China showed a trend of high in the northwest and southeast,low in the northeast and southwest.40.2%of urban regions continued to deepen the degree of NGP,while 23.6%continued to reduce.The gap between regions in the level of NGP was further widened.Based on the elastic zoning results of the level of NGP and GPP,the development of NGP in China had failed to adapt to the evolution trend of GPP,and the changes between different types of zones had a negative impact on grain production.Among them,the scope of development zone,decline zone and inefficient zone expanded,and the scope of loss zone,excessive zone and superior production zone shrank.Most of loss zones had changed to development zones,and superior production zones had gradually changed to decline zones and inefficient zones.The ΔTGP of China in 2000,2010 and 2020 decreased by 3.5×108,3.1×108t and 2.4×108t due to the NGP,respectively,with the largest reduction in the central and southern regions and the smallest in the northwestern regions.The loss of ΔTGP was significantly negatively correlated with actual grain yield,and the impact of NGP on grain production continues to deepen.Reducing the loss of ΔTGP would be beneficial for grain production.Adjusting the level of NGP in various types of regions based on the spatial distribution and changing trends of GPP can promote the achievement of stable grain production and ensure national food security.关键词
耕地非粮化/粮食生产潜力/时空格局/弹性分区/粮食安全Key words
non-grain production of cultivated land/grain production potential/spatial-temporal pattern/elastic zoning/food security引用本文复制引用
曹宏宇,李飞,王伊斌,王建,刘翠翠..基于粮食生产能力的耕地非粮化时空演变规律研究[J].农业资源与环境学报,2026,43(1):52-64,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42171197) （42171197）
