农业资源与环境学报2026，Vol.43Issue(1)：77-90,14.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2024.0951
基于人口收缩视域和土地利用多情景预测的东北黑土区人地关系演化研究
Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of human-land relationship in the black soil area of northeast China from the perspective of population shrinkage
摘要
Abstract
This study focus on the black soil area in northeast China,based on the perspective of population contraction.This study explored the coupling characteristics of human land relationship and its temporal and spatial evolution law under different scenarios through the multi scenario prediction of future population and land use,so as to provide a decision basis for the sustainable use of regional land and scientific planning.The research methods included comprehensive index of land use degree,elasticity coefficient of human-land relationship,grey prediction model and PLUS model.The results showed that,during 2000-2020,the permanent population in the black soil region contracted significantly,especially in the north and southeast.The degree of land use showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest.Although the comprehensive index level continued to improve,the further development was limited by the population contraction.The differences in land use under various scenarios in 2030 and 2050 were mainly reflected in three types of land,including cultivated land,woodland and construction land.The cultivated land protection scenario could effectively slow down the expansion trend of urban buildings,while the ecological protection scenario could effectively increase the area of ecological land,such as forest land and water area.The contradiction between economic development and ecological protection still needed to be balanced.In the past 20 years,the coupling between land use degree and population had shown an uncoordinated development trend,and the coupling type had changed from class H(land use degree increases,population decreases,and the former increases faster)imbalance to class G(land use degree increase,population decrease,and the latter decreases faster)imbalance.The coordination degree of the eastern region was higher than that of the western region.In the next 30 years,under different scenarios,the coupling imbalance between population and land use in nearly half of the districts and counties would still exist and show a dynamic adjustment trend.In conclusion,the population shrinkage in the black soil area of Northeast China has seriously affected land use.In the future,ecological protection should be used as a guide to effectively respond to land use changes in the context of population shrinkage by implementing measures such as industrial transformation,cultivated land protection,and population resettlement.关键词
土地利用/人地关系/东北黑土区/PLUS模型Key words
land use/human-land relationship/black soil area in Northeast China/PLUS model引用本文复制引用
李玉恒,张云,赵宁,吴斌,王友硕,STANNY Monika,Thi NGUYEN Phuoc Lai,杜国明..基于人口收缩视域和土地利用多情景预测的东北黑土区人地关系演化研究[J].农业资源与环境学报,2026,43(1):77-90,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42471240) （42471240）
