农业资源与环境学报2026，Vol.43Issue(1)：118-130,13.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2024.0978
基于CA-Markov模型的洮河流域土地利用模拟与生态系统服务变化
Land use simulation and ecosystem service change in Taohe River Basin based on CA-Markov model
摘要
Abstract
Land use change in Taohe Basin is of great significance to the evolution of regional ecosystem service.Studying the influence of land use change on ecosystem service in different scenarios can provide reference for the sustainable development of the basin.In this study,the CA-Markov model was used to simulate the distribution pattern of land use in the Taohe River Basin under three different scenarios of natural development,cultivated land protection and ecological protection in 2030.The InVEST model was used to calculate the habitat quality,water yield,soil conservation and carbon storage services under different scenarios.On this basis,the analytic hierarchy process was used to construct a comprehensive ecosystem service index(CES)to reflect the total supply of various ecosystem services and the impact of land use on ecosystem services under different scenarios.The results showed that the expansion of construction land in the south and northeast,especially in rural settlements,under the natural development scenario would trigger a decline in water yield,soil retention,habitat quality and carbon reserves(decreased by 0.43%,0.28%,3.23%and 0.84%,respectively).Under the scenario of farmland protection,habitat quality and soil retention decreased by 6.45%and 1.12%,respectively.Under the ecological protection scenario,ecosystem service showed an upward tendency except the water yield decreased by 0.45%.Under the scenario of cultivated land protection,the area of CES decreased was the most,accounting for 77.18%,mainly distributed in the central area of woodland and grassland occupied by cultivated land.In the future,the amount of arable land needs to be further balanced to avoid excessive expansion.In the natural development scenario,small CES changes accounted for 91.70%of the total area,indicating that the Taohe River basin ecosystem has good regulation capacity,and excessive human intervention should be avoided.Under the scenario of ecological protection,the area of the ecosystem service value increased accounted for the highest proportion,reaching 86.64%.In the future,ecological restoration work should be actively promoted and land use strategies should be optimized,which will contribute to the healthy development of the watershed ecosystem.关键词
土地利用变化模拟/生态系统服务功能/CA-Markov模型/InVEST模型/生态系统服务指数/洮河流域Key words
land use change simulation/ecosystem service function/CA-Markov model/InVEST model/ecosystem service index/Taohe River Basin引用本文复制引用
王永强,黄背英,谢保鹏,陈英,裴婷婷,王雯,柴悦..基于CA-Markov模型的洮河流域土地利用模拟与生态系统服务变化[J].农业资源与环境学报,2026,43(1):118-130,13.基金项目
甘肃农业大学伏羲青年英才培育计划项目(Gaufx-03Y08) （Gaufx-03Y08）
