人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(12)：1-10,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.12.001
珠江流域高温干旱与高温强降水复合极端事件时空演变及未来趋势
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Future Projections of Compound Heat-Drought and Heat-Heavy Precipitation Extremes in the Pearl River Basin
摘要
Abstract
With the increasing frequency of extreme events,this study focused on compound heat-drought and heat-heavy precipitation events,analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of such compound extremes in the Pearl River Basin under climate change and revealing their historical patterns and future trends.Based on daily precipitation and maximum temperature data from 148 meteorological stations during 1970-2018,compound extreme events in the historical period were identified using the relative threshold method and the standardized precipitation index(SPI).The simulation performance of four individual coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)models and one multi-model ensemble was evaluated for the Pearl River Basin to identify the most suitable model.Using the most suitable model,namely the selected CLIMEA-BCUD multi-model ensemble,future spatiotemporal patterns and trends of compound extreme events were projected under three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5).Results show that during the historical period(1970-2018),compound heat-drought events occurred at an average of 14 times per year,significantly more frequent than heat-heavy precipitation events(0.4 times/year),and both showed increasing trends.Spatially,heat-drought events were concentrated in low-altitude regions,while heat-heavy precipitation events occurred more frequently in the high-altitude northwestern areas.Future projections indicate the largest increases under the high-emission scenario(SSP5-8.5),with heat-drought events increasing by about 4 events per decade and heat-heavy precipitation events by about 0.6 events per decade,followed by the medium-emission scenario(SSP2-4.5),while no significant changes are observed under the low-emission scenario(SSP1-2.6).Spatially,future heat-drought events are projected to occur more frequently in the central and western parts of the basin(40～60 events per year),whereas heat-heavy precipitation events are expected to be more frequent along the southeastern coast and in northern regions(exceeding 5 events per year).Emission reduction policies are crucial for mitigating future risks of compound extreme events.Under high-emission scenarios,risks increase substantially.Notable spatial differences are observed:The central and western regions are more sensitive to heat-drought events,while the southeastern coastal areas exhibit stronger responses to heat-heavy precipitation.This study provides theoretical support for formulating disaster risk reduction strategies for compound extreme events in the Pearl River Basin.关键词
复合极端事件/CMIP6/气候变化/时空演变/珠江流域Key words
compound extreme event/CMIP6/climate change/spatiotemporal evolution/Pearl River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
崔国韬,邓紫茜,田浩业,史树洁..珠江流域高温干旱与高温强降水复合极端事件时空演变及未来趋势[J].人民珠江,2025,46(12):1-10,10.基金项目
广州市基础与应用基础研究项目(2024A04J3814) （2024A04J3814）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42301012) （42301012）
国家重点研发计划资助项目((2024YFD1700801-04) （(2024YFD1700801-04）
中山大学高校基本科研业务(24qnpy020) （24qnpy020）
