人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(12)：11-20,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.12.002
系统动力学数值模型在黑河流域水资源短缺预测中的应用
Application of System Dynamics Numerical Model in Predicting Water Shortage in the Heihe River Basin
摘要
Abstract
System dynamics numerical model can accurately measure the impact of various complex factors on regional water demand and water scarcity,and it is a commonly used method in the study of regional water scarcity issues.As a numerical model for simulating multiple feedback complex giant systems,the system dynamics method can quantitatively simulate and analyze the dynamic changes of regional water resources coupled by many influencing factors in complex giant systems.Therefore,from a quantitative perspective,it can accurately obtain the feedback and dynamic relationships between the many factors that affect the changes of regional water resources,providing a quantitative and scientific basis for solving regional water shortage problems and sustainable management of water resources.The water consumption in Zhangye Basin has also been continuously increasing with the rapid development of the social economy.In addition,the climate in this region has the characteristics of low precipitation and high evaporation.Zhangye Basin has become one of the most prominent areas of water shortage in northwest China and even the whole country,which has a crucial limiting effect on the sustainable development of the region's social economy.This article took the Zhangye Basin in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin as the research area and established a system dynamics numerical model of water resource utilization in the Zhangye Basin based on the system dynamics method.A systematic quantitative simulation of the water demand and water shortage degree in the Zhangye Basin from 2024 to 2050 was carried out.The results indicate that:① With the development of the social economy,the water demand in Zhangye Basin will continue to increase.During the forecast period(2024-2050),the average total water demand for the five schemes(P1—P5)each year is 2.914,3.133,2.294,2.857,and 2.245 billion m3,respectively.The proportion of water shortage time to the total forecast time is 92.59%,96.30%,29.63%,85.19%,and 29.63%,respectively.The average water shortage in water shortage years is 659,791,485,657,and 429 million m3,respectively.The average water shortage index in water shortage years is 0.198 7,0.225 4,0.163 5,0.199 8,and 0.146 1,respectively.② Therefore,scheme P5,which comprehensively considers the impact of socio-economic development,urbanization,and water resource conservation,is the most sustainable development scenario and the development plan that the research area should adopt in the future.Government decision-makers in the research area should consider the socio-economic development plan proposed in scheme P5 when formulating policies for socio-economic development and water resource protection.In the future process of water resource utilization in Zhangye Basin,it is necessary to increase the application of various water-saving measures and technologies,improve the water use efficiency of various departments,and take multiple measures to ultimately achieve sustainable water resource utilization.关键词
数值模型/水资源可持续利用/系统动力学/张掖盆地Key words
numerical model/sustainable utilization of water resources/system dynamics/Zhangye Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
秦欢欢,陈益平..系统动力学数值模型在黑河流域水资源短缺预测中的应用[J].人民珠江,2025,46(12):11-20,10.基金项目
东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104) （DHBK2016104）
