人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(12)：21-28,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.12.003
东江流域枯季径流演变特征分析
Evolution Characteristics of Dry-Season Runoff in Dongjiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily average flow data observed from 1954 to 2024 at Boluo Station,a control station in the lower reaches of the Dongjiang River mainstream,this paper investigated the evolution characteristics of the dry-season runoff.The heuristic segmentation algorithm was firstly applied to diagnose change points,and then the indicators of the hydrologic alteration-range of variability approach(IHA-RVA method)were used to quantitatively evaluate the degree of hydrologic alteration.The research results indicate that:①Change points were identified in 1973 and 1985.The time is not arbitrary,which aligns precisely with the commission and operationalization of two major reservoirs in the Dongjiang River Basin,the Fengshuba Reservoir and the Baipenzhu Reservoir.This temporal coincidence provides compelling evidence that the abrupt changes observed in the dry-season runoff at Boluo station are predominantly attributable to reservoir regulation,rather than purely natural climatic variability.②Under the regulation effect of reservoirs,which operate on a principle of storing water during wet periods and supplementing it during dry periods,the dry-season hydrological characteristics have undergone substantial modifications.Analysis of the IHA parameters shows a notable increase in both the monthly average flow during the dry season and the annual extreme minimum flow.However,the impact on these two categories is not uniform.The annual extreme minimum flow has experienced a more dramatic increase,exhibiting a high degree of alteration according to the RVA assessment.This is a direct consequence of targeted reservoir releases designed to mitigate severe droughts and meet water demand downstream.For the monthly average flows,the degree of alteration varies across the dry season months.Except for November and March,which show a low degree of alteration,the average flows in the other dry season months(December,January,and February)demonstrate a moderate degree of alteration.This pattern suggests that reservoir operations are most intensive during the core of the dry season,effectively elevating baseflows to levels significantly outside the pre-impoundment range of natural variability.③Further insights from the IHA-RVA analysis pertain to the frequency and duration of low-flow events.The frequency of low pulse flows has generally decreased,indicating that periods of critically low water have become less common.More significantly,the duration of these low pulses has undergone a substantial shortening,demonstrating a moderate degree of alteration.④The timing of the annual minimum flow has also been affected.In a natural and unregulated river,the annual minimum typically occurs predictably during the peak of the dry season.However,under reservoir regulation,the timing of this hydrological event has become more variable,exhibiting frequent interannual shifts and a moderate degree of alteration.This increased variability can likely be attributed to the complex operational objectives and dynamic regulation mechanisms of the reservoirs.In conclusion,the hydrological regime of the Dongjiang River at Boluo Station,particularly during the dry season,has been profoundly transformed by the operation of upstream reservoirs.The alterations are multifaceted,affecting the magnitude,frequency,duration,and timing of key flow parameters.The findings offer critical insights into the transformative impacts of water conservancy projects on the river's natural flow regime,particularly during the crucial dry season.关键词
枯季径流/启发式分割算法/IHA-RVA法/水文改变度/东江流域Key words
dry-season runoff/heuristic segmentation algorithm/IHA-RVA method/degree of hydrologic alteration/Dongjiang River Basin分类
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廖叶颖,刘丙军..东江流域枯季径流演变特征分析[J].人民珠江,2025,46(12):21-28,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3212000) （2024YFC3212000）
国家自然科学基金资助项目面上项目(52579029) （52579029）
