上海预防医学2025，Vol.37Issue(11)：925-932,8.DOI:10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2025.25078
1990-2021年中国居民高体重指数所致缺血性心脏病疾病负担及变化趋势预测
Analyses of the disease burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease attributable to high body mass index among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To analyze the changes in the disease burden of ischemic heart disease(IHD)attributable to high body mass index(hBMI)among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021,to predict its future trends from 2022 to 2035,so as to provide data support for the development of targeted public health policies.[Methods]Using data from the global burden of disease study 2021(GBD 2021),stratified analyses of age-and gender-specific mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)for IHD attributable to hBMI among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 were conducted.The average annual percentage change(AAPC)and its 95%confidence intervals(CI)for both mortality rates and DALY were calculated using Joinpoint regression models to analyze trends in the disease burden of IHD attributable to hBMI in China,globally,and across regions with different socio-demographic index(SDI)levels from 1990 to 2021.Age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates were computed based on the GBD world population standard.Additionally,the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict the standardized mortality rates and standardized DALYs rates for IHD attributable to hBMI in China from 2022 to 2035.[Results]Between 1990 and 2021,the age-standardized mortality rate for IHD attributable to hBMI among Chinese residents increased from 3.34/100 000 to 8.24/100 000,representing a growth of 146.71%,while the age-standardized DALY rate rose from 79.21/100 000 to 175.05/100 000,with an increase of 120.99%.Age-and gender-specific stratified analyses revealed that the disease burden among individuals aged≥75 years was higher than that of other age groups,with a greater increase in disease burden observed in males compared to females.Trend analyses indicated that,from 1990 to 2021,the overall age-standardized mortality rate for IHD attributable to hBMI in China rose annually(AAPC=3.41%,95%CI:3.02%‒3.80%),whereas the global age-standardized mortality rate declined annually(AAPC=-0.73%,95%CI:-0.82%‒-0.65%),and the age-standardized mortality rate in high-middle SDI regions decreased annually(AAPC=-1.05%,95%CI:-1.36%‒-0.74%).Concurrently,the overall age-standardized DALY rate in China increased annually(AAPC=2.97%,95%CI:2.67%‒3.28%),while the global age-standardized DALY rate declined annually(AAPC=-0.47%,95%CI:-0.56%‒-0.39%),and the age-standardized DALY rate in high-middle SDI regions decreased annually(AAPC=-1.13%,95%CI:-1.51%‒-0.76%).Predictive results indicated that,from 2022 to 2035,both the age-standardized mortality rate(AAPC=2.31%,95%CI:2.11%‒2.51%)and age-standardized DALY rate(AAPC=2.16%,95%CI:1.96%‒2.37%)for IHD attributable to hBMI among residents of China are expected to increase annually.[Conclusion]The disease burden of IHD attributable to hBMI among Chinese residents continues to increase.It is essential to address the challenges posed by population aging and the large population base.Appropriate body weight management measures should be implemented at both the macro-policy making and individual health management levels to reduce the disease burden associated with hBMI and achieve the high-quality development of population health.关键词
体重指数/缺血性心脏病/疾病负担/标化死亡率/伤残调整寿命年/趋势分析/预测Key words
body mass index/ischemic heart disease/disease burden/standardized mortality rate/disability-adjusted life year/trend analysis/prediction分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
贾文昌,陈柄宏,武磊,李鸿钰,刘茹,王启哲,江孙芳,施伟斌,李小攀..1990-2021年中国居民高体重指数所致缺血性心脏病疾病负担及变化趋势预测[J].上海预防医学,2025,37(11):925-932,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3600903) （2022YFC3600903）
上海市加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2023-2025年)重点学科建设项目(GWVI-11.1-44) （2023-2025年）
2023年度上海市"科技创新行动计划"计算生物学重点专项(23JS1401000) （23JS1401000）
