灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(1)：2-13,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.01.002
灾害事故调查评估理论体系研究
Research on the Theoretical System of Disaster and Accident Investigation and Assessment
摘要
Abstract
Based on the analysis of disaster accidents in six scenarios including community life,enterprise production,engineering construction,engineering operation,outdoor campsites and travel and leisure,the prob-lems,tasks and key challenges faced by the investigation and assessment are analyzed.The investigation and evaluation theories mainly include the theory of causes of natural disasters,the theory of causes of accident disas-ters,the theory of causal relationships,and the theory of system prevention.The theories explaining the causes of natural disasters include the theory of divine predestination,the theory of energy release and transmission,the the-ory of energy transformation and amplification,the theory of random encounter,and the theory of inadequate pre-vention and response.The theories of accident causation include the accident recurrence tendency theory,the causal chain theory,the energy release theory,the trajectory intersection theory,the system causation theory and the dynamic change theory.The theory of causal correlation encompasses the forward and reverse thinking theo-ries of analyzing causes from effects,inferring causes from effects,and the mutual feedback of cause and effect.The system prevention theory encompasses scientific epistemology,technical methodology,and prevention coun-termeasures theory.Scientific epistemology addresses the issues of causes and hazards,while technical methodol-ogy seeks to combine the holistic and fragmented perspectives.The countermeasures theory includes regulatory theory,engineering theory,and cultural theory.关键词
自然灾害/事故灾难/因果关联/认识论/方法论/对策论Key words
natural disasters/accidental disasters/causal relationship/Epistemology/Methodology/Counter-measure Theory分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
刘传正,苏国锋,米文忠,王建新..灾害事故调查评估理论体系研究[J].灾害学,2026,41(1):2-13,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目"灾害事故精准调查与智能研判平台关键技术"(2024YFC3016800) （2024YFC3016800）
应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2021-09) （ZDJ2021-09）
