灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(1)：14-21,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.01.003
集对分析联系数方法在旱灾风险评估中的应用进展
Application Progress of Connection Number Methods of Set Pair Analysis in Drought Risk Assessment
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the uncertainty problems existing in regional drought risk assessment,this paper focuses on the core element of evaluation indicators in drought risk assessment,the theories and practices of the set pair analysis connection number method related to evaluation indicators(research variables)in regional drought risk assessment are systematically sorted out,and the applications of the connection number method in key links are elaborated on,such as drought risk factor diagnosis,construction and weighting of evaluation indicator systems,evaluation of single-index subsystems and comprehensive system evaluation,as well as stochastic simulation of assessment results.The results indicate that the connection number methods exhibit distinct advantages in quantitatively analyzing the uncer-tainty relationship related to drought risk assessment indicators.By incorporating the application steps of the connec-tion number method into the framework of Aristotle's syllogism,this assessment reveals the"middle term connection principle"—where evaluation indicators,acting as the middle term,serve as the link between evaluation objects and evaluation objectives in drought risk assessment.This principle can be extended to other structural water resources science methods such as modeling,prediction,and evaluation,highlighting the core role of research variables in sys-tematic analysis.Finally,the study prospects the key directions and trends of future research on this method.关键词
旱灾风险评估/综合评价/联系数/亚里士多德三段论/中项联系原理Key words
drought risk assessment/comprehensive evaluation/connection number/Aristotle's syllogism/mid-dle term connection principle分类
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金菊良,张凯旋,周亮广,周戎星,李家耀,蒋尚明,罗曼婷..集对分析联系数方法在旱灾风险评估中的应用进展[J].灾害学,2026,41(1):14-21,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"汉江流域水资源可持续利用及其风险调控"(U2240223)、"考虑地下水生态水位的淮北平原水资源短缺风险智能识别与评价研究"(52409001) （U2240223）
安徽省自然科学基金项目"江淮丘陵区农业旱灾动态风险定量评估技术研究"(2208085US03)、"基于水文-作物-多智能体耦合模型的灌区供需水全过程关系结构系统智能模拟研究"(2408085ME135) （2208085US03）
滁州市科技计划项目"基于风险传导关系结构的江淮分水岭地区农业旱灾风险综合评估"(2025ZD001) （2025ZD001）
