灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(1)：46-53,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.01.007
城市洪涝灾害韧性时空演化特征研究
Resilience Assessment and Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution Analysis of Urban Flood Disaster Resilience
摘要
Abstract
The resilience construction of urban flood disaster is an important way and effective means to improve the ability of urban flood risk response and rapid recovery.According to a three-dimensional evaluation index system of urban flood disaster resilience based on pressure-state-response theory,the flood disaster resilience level of 284 cit-ies in China from 2011 to 2020 is evaluated by using the range maximization combination weighting optimization model,and its spatial-temporal pattern and dynamic evolution are revealed by using kernel density estimation and Mar-kov chain.It is found that the resilience level of urban flood disasters in China is gradually improving,the develop-ment of pressure toughness is relatively stable,the state toughness fluctuates greatly and decreases,and the response toughness is obviously improved.Kernel density estimation and Markov chain analysis show that the resilience of urban flood disasters has a strong persistence without considering the spatial conditions,and the state transition is not easy to occur in each region.When considering the spatial conditions,the neighboring regions with medium and low toughness levels have convergence,while the regions with high toughness levels are not easy to have spatial correla-tion with neighboring regions.The probability of achieving a leap-forward improvement in the toughness level of this region is increasing,and the toughness level of neighboring cities can radiate and affect the toughness improvement of this region,but the impact is limited.关键词
城市洪涝灾害/韧性评估/时空格局演化Key words
urban flood disaster/toughness assessment/temporal and spatial pattern evolution分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
范玲,闫绪娴,刘杨..城市洪涝灾害韧性时空演化特征研究[J].灾害学,2026,41(1):46-53,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金"我国城市暴雨内涝灾害形成机理、韧性评估与防治对策研究"(20BGL260) （20BGL260）
山西师范大学"深入学习贯彻党的二十届三中全会精神"研究专项"地方政府韧性治理的注意力配置差异研究—基于发展与安全"孰轻孰重"的视角"(SZQH2413) （SZQH2413）
