灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(1)：87-94,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.01.012
基于反沉默螺旋效应的突发事件网络舆情动力研究
Research on the Dynamics of Emergency Event Network Public Opinion Based on the Anti-Silence Spiral Effect
摘要
Abstract
In the era of social media dominance,public opinion during sudden incidents exhibits a striking phenomenon:minority viewpoints often overturn mainstream narratives,challenging the traditional spiral of si-lence theory and leading to uncontrolled information spread with potential social risks.By focusing on the anti-spiral of silence effect in online public opinion and aiming to unravel the dynamics of how minority opinions gain traction and reshape discourse during crises,an innovative SIDR(Susceptible-Infective-Denied-Recovered)model is proposed by integrating the classical SIR epidemiological model with the Hegselmann-Krause opinion dynamics model.A critical novelty is the introduction of a"Denied"state,representing rumor debunkers,to ex-plicitly capture the role of rational voices in countering misinformation.The model incorporates two key parame-ters:the opinion interaction threshold(d),which quantifies the maximum acceptable opinion difference for infor-mation exchange,and the rumor refutation inhibition factor(f),measuring how debunkers weaken the spread of rumors.This framework enables us to depict the selective information interaction mechanism among users based on opinion convergence thresholds.The model is validated by using the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge incident,a typical case where minority rational perspectives eventually influenced public discourse.Simulations reveal that coordinated regulation of d and f accelerates cross-group diffusion of debunking information,shorten-ing the peak period of rumor spread by 15%～20%compared to single-parameter adjustments.During rumor out-breaks,simultaneously raising the interaction threshold and establishing minority opinion feedback mechanisms effectively suppresses information homogenization,fostering rational convergence and consensus formation.Theoretical contributions lie in bridging information transmission and opinion game dynamics,providing a quan-tifiable explanation for public opinion reversal.Practically,our findings offer evidence-based strategies for au-thorities and platforms,such as dynamic threshold tuning and early empowerment of debunkers,to manage online public opinion more effectively.This work enriches the understanding of nonlinear public opinion evolution and provides a new paradigm for crisis communication management in the digital age.关键词
应急管理/舆情动力/"反沉默螺旋"效应/福岛核污水排海事件/改进SIDR模型Key words
emergency management/public opinion dynamics/the anti-silence spiral effect/Fukushima nu-clear wastewater discharge incident/improved SIDR model分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
晋良海,丁康玲,姚文杰,夏琪,江新..基于反沉默螺旋效应的突发事件网络舆情动力研究[J].灾害学,2026,41(1):87-94,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"地下厂房起重作业安全态势感知的视觉效应及光学调控机制"(52179136) （52179136）
