灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(1)：124-132,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.01.016
"黑、红"事件下城市居民出行韧性
Research on the Resilience of Urban Travel under"Black/Red"Events:A Case Study Based on the Big Data of E-hailing Taxi Demand of Haikou
摘要
Abstract
Typhoons and holidays bring disturbances to urban's social and economic activities,from which the travel demand derived is affected as well.Researches on travel demand's spatial distribution with LBS data merely discuss the urban-scale spatio-temporal variations with both disturbances.Thus,based on big data mining technology,we grab Haikou's e-hailing taxi demand OD(Origin-destination)data of nine weeks during Ty-phoon Doksuri,Khanun and GUOQING holiday in 2017.With global Moran's I index,Moran scatterplot,weighted degree centrality and weighted degree distribution,analyses of travel demand on geographical spatio-temporal agglomeration and network's hierarchical structure are conducted.The findings can be summarized as follows:①the network on urban sub-district level got a more polarized hierarchical structure during all the distur-bances and then rebounds afterwards(two weeks for both typhoons and one week for holiday).Those variations can be demonstrated by the increase and decrease of weighed degree distribution exponents.②the significance of hotspot agglomeration for origin travel demand was declining while the destination travel demand was rising when both typhoon strikes took place.And the significance of hotspot agglomeration for both origin and destina-tion travel demand during GUOQING holiday were declining.Those variations above can be demonstrated with the Moran's index z-value.③A three-stages-pattern including"pre-disaster,response,post-disaster"can be ob-served in all the disturbances.Those spatio-temporal variations in both geographical hotspot agglomeration and complex network's hierarchical structure indicate a resilient characteristic of travel demand.④with regard to weighted degree centrality and agglomeration of OD demand,the specific spatio-temporal patterns of urban travel demand show differences in detail between different disturbances,that nodes ranking indicates different sub-district playing the key role in network and post-disaster stages indicate different recovery models of resilience as a process.On this basis the concept of"Black/Red"events is proposed,as well as suggestions on spatial gover-nance and planning are proposed,that differentiated strategies should be adopted to promote resilience:reinforc-ing facilities in central urban area to promote robustness and arranging emergency management in rest areas to promote redundancy.We also provide for exploring the interdisciplinary researching framework for geographical science,catastrophology and urban planning from the urban-scale patterns of travel demand with multi-source big data.关键词
出行需求/时空格局/韧性/台风/小长假/网约车Key words
travel demand/spatio-temporal pattern/resilience/typhoon/holiday/e-hailing taxi分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
段怡嫣,翟国方,胡洋.."黑、红"事件下城市居民出行韧性[J].灾害学,2026,41(1):124-132,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题"资源约束下城市(群)系统韧性功能协同恢复和提升技术"(2023YFC3805204) （群）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"出行能力视角下社区建成环境对老年人出行行为与出行福祉的影响机理研究"(42401303) （42401303）
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"行动能力差异视角下社区建成环境对老年人出行行为影响机理与规划干预路径研究"(24YJC840010). （24YJC840010）
