大地测量与地球动力学2026，Vol.46Issue(1)：106-114,9.DOI:10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.603
滇西北断裂带痕量氢地震异常特征分析及预报效能评价
Seismic Anomaly Characteristics and Prediction Efficiency Evaluation of Trace Hydrogen in the Fault Zone of Northwestern Yunnan
摘要
Abstract
Based on the statistical analysis,correlation fitting and preprocessing of high-precision con-tinuous observation data of four trace hydrogen observation points in fault zones of northwestern Yun-nan over the past five years,we evaluate the seismic prediction efficiency of observational data,and analyze the characteristics and causes of trace hydrogen concentration anomalies related to earthquakes combining with previous studies.The results show that:1)The concentration variations of hydrogen escaping from hot springs in northwestern Yunnan are correlated with temperature and air pressure,showing distinct annual variation features.In contrast,hydrogen escaping from soil is essentially un-correlated with meteorological elements.Comparison with previous studies,there is a significant spa-tial heterogeneity in the distribution of trace hydrogen concentration in fault zones,which is not con-trolled by a single factor.2)All of four trace hydrogen observation points in northwestern Yunnan are effective seismic prediction indicators with statistical significance.The short-term prediction effect of hydrogen escaping from soil is better but with relatively lower credibility.The prediction efficiency of hydrogen escaping from hot springs is mainly in medium to long term,with relatively higher credibili-ty.3)There is a close correlation between hydrogen anomalies in fault zones and seismic activities in northwestern Yunnan.Seismic precursory anomalies typically manifest as sudden increases or saw-tooth fluctuations.Due to differences in hydrogen sources,escaping processes,and geothermal stor-age temperatures in different regions,the geochemical background values of hydrogen escaping from hot springs and soil also exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity.关键词
断裂带/痕量氢/效能评价/异常特征Key words
fault zone/trace hydrogen/efficiency evaluation/abnormal characteristics分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黑贺堂,张源,李庆,高琼,匡泳庄,李梅芳,邓嘉美..滇西北断裂带痕量氢地震异常特征分析及预报效能评价[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2026,46(1):106-114,9.基金项目
中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2024010312) （2024010312）
中国地震局"三结合"课题(3JH-202401094). （3JH-202401094）
