广东电力2025，Vol.38Issue(12)：55-68,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2025.12.005
基于变分贝叶斯无迹卡尔曼滤波的惯量及一次调频系数联合估计方法
Joint Estimation for Inertia and Primary Frequency Regulation Coefficient Based on Variational Bayesian Unscented Kalman Filter
摘要
Abstract
With the continuous increase in the proportion of new energy generation,the inertial characteristics and frequency response capability of power systems have undergone significant changes.Rapid and accurate estimation of system inertia and primary frequency regulation coefficient is crucial for frequency control and parameter optimization.This paper proposes a joint online estimation method for power system inertia and primary frequency regulation coefficient based on the Variational Bayesian Unscented Kalman Filter.First,a dynamic state-space model of system frequency is constructed,which establishes a foundation for the joint estimation of the subsequent parameters.Then,the Unscented Kalman Filter and Variational Bayesian inference are comprehensively utilized to achieve adaptive estimation of noise statistical characteristics.Simultaneously,exponential smoothing,residual feedback,and t-Copula coupling parameter update strategies are introduced to improve the accuracy and robustness of the estimation.Finally,case testing is conducted based on the modified IEEE-39 node system.Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can rapidly and accurately estimate system inertia and primary frequency regulation coefficient under various disturbance scenarios,showing significant advantages in estimation accuracy and robustness compared to traditional methods.关键词
惯量/一次调频/变分贝叶斯/无迹卡尔曼滤波/参数估计Key words
inertia/primary frequency regulation/Variational Bayesian/Unscented Kalman Filter/parameter estimation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
欧阳雪彤,陈保瑞,叶希,王曦,杨凯,文云峰..基于变分贝叶斯无迹卡尔曼滤波的惯量及一次调频系数联合估计方法[J].广东电力,2025,38(12):55-68,14.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(52199723003H) （52199723003H）
