经济学报2025，Vol.12Issue(4)：1-19,19.
中美经济发展:关联特征与溢出效应变迁
Economic Development in China and the United States:Linkages and Changes in Spillover Effects
摘要
Abstract
This paper constructs a three-economy input-output model for China,the United States,and the rest of the world based on Global Input-Output Tables from 1997 to 2020,analyzing the medium-and long-term change characteristics of domestic multiplier effects,inter-country feedback effects,and spillover effects on the real output and output growth of China and the United States.The results show that domestic multiplier effects explain more than 80%of output growth in both countries,but inter-economy spillover effects have become a non-negligible influencing factor.The three types of effect coefficients indicate that China's domestic industrial linkages and external connectivity are stronger than those of the United States.Additionally,China's output growth relies more on changes in the three types of coefficients,while the United States depends more on changes in its own final goods production scale.Further analysis of spillover effects reveals that China's spillover impact on the United States is increasing,while the U.S.spillover impact on China is decreasing,and the mutual spillover effects between China and the rest of the world are both strengthening.These characteristics are also evident across the eight primary industrial sectors.In the future,the risk of economic"decoupling"between China and the United States remains high,and strengthening economic ties between China and other global economies is a necessary path for China's sustained and healthy economic development.关键词
中美经济发展/产业关联/溢出效应/结构分解分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
潘文卿,张文清,郝远航..中美经济发展:关联特征与溢出效应变迁[J].经济学报,2025,12(4):1-19,19.基金项目
本研究受国家自然科学基金项目"全球价值链与国内价值链:中国在'双循环'中的获益与贡献研究"(项目编号:72173071) （项目编号:72173071）
"高维计量模型的机器学习方法及其在经济管理中的应用"(项目编号:72133002)的资助. （项目编号:72133002）
