临床肝胆病杂志2025，Vol.41Issue(12)：2562-2571,10.DOI:10.12449/JCH251218
基于2021年全球疾病负担数据库的中国肝母细胞瘤疾病负担分析
Disease burden analysis of hepatoblastoma in China based on the 2021 global burden of disease database
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal changes of the disease burden of hepatoblastoma(HB)in China from 1990 to 2021,to predict future trends,and to analyze the correlation between disease burden and socioeconomic factors.Methods The 2021 Global Burden of Disease database was used to obtain the disease burden data of HB in China in 1990-2021,including the absolute numbers and age-standardized rates of incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY).The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends in disease burden,and an age-period-cohort(APC)model was constructed to investigate the contribution of three main factors driving the changes in disease burden.Health inequality analysis was used to investigate the correlation between disease burden and the socio-demographic index(SDI),and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort models were established to predict the future disease burden of HB.Results There was a significant reduction in the disease burden of HB in China from 1990 to 2021,and the numbers of incidence,mortality,and DALY were reduced by 75.62%(42.69%globally),86.26%(49.96%globally),and 86.32%(49.93%globally),respectively.The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),and age-standardized DALY rate[AS(DALY)R]of the disease were reduced by 3.90%,4.44%,and 5.93%,respectively,with greater reductions than the global levels(2.03%,2.19%,and 2.73%,respectively).The APC model showed that age effect(25.17%)and epidemiological trend(87.46%)were the main driving factors,and nonlinear correlation was observed between SDI and disease burden.Predictive models showed that ASIR would continue to decline after 2021,while ASMR and AS(DALY)R would remain stable.Conclusion There was a tendency of reduction in the disease burden of HB in China in 1990-2021,with age effect and epidemiological trend as the main driving factors,and the SDI correlation analysis shows that it is needed to focus on the optimization of prevention and control in regions with medium to high levels of development.Prediction results indicate the sustained effectiveness of current prevention and control strategies,but the risk of diseases in specific age groups should be closely monitored.关键词
肝母细胞瘤/患病代价/流行病学研究Key words
Hepatoblastoma/Cost of Illness/Epidemiologic Studies引用本文复制引用
罗涛,王森鑫,杨尚儒,赵学安,周文策..基于2021年全球疾病负担数据库的中国肝母细胞瘤疾病负担分析[J].临床肝胆病杂志,2025,41(12):2562-2571,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(82260555) （82260555）
甘肃省科技重大专项(22ZD6FA021-4) National Natural Science Foundation of China(82260555) （22ZD6FA021-4）
Gansu Provincial Major Science and Technology Projects(22ZD6FA021-4) （22ZD6FA021-4）
