工程科学与技术2026，Vol.58Issue(1)：18-30,13.DOI:10.12454/j.jsuese.202400960
基于组合赋权-云模型的抽水蓄能电站综合效益评价
Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plant Based on Combined Weighting and Cloud Model
摘要
Abstract
Objective The comprehensive evaluation of pumped storage power plants is of critical importance for ensuring that these systems,which play a pivotal role in grid regulation,renewable energy integration,and the achievement of national carbon reduction targets,are operating optimally.In practice,however,evaluation processes often suffer from incomplete indicator systems,imbalanced subjective and objective weight assignments,and a lack of robust methodologies capable of adequately reflecting uncertainties and fuzziness in complex systems.Therefore,the present study proposes a novel comprehensive benefit evaluation method for pumped storage power plants,which integrates game theory-based combined weighting with cloud model theory.The objective is to develop a systematic,objective,and adaptable evaluation framework that provides scien-tific support for decision-making and operational optimization in pumped storage power plants. Methods Firstly,based on an extensive literature review,this study employed social network analysis(SNA)to screen the key indicators re-quired for the comprehensive benefit evaluation of pumped storage power plants.Through centrality analysis,it removed redundant indicators.It merged overlapping concepts,which ultimately formed an evaluation indicator system comprising eight primary categories(financial evaluation,national economic evaluation,technical benefits,dynamic benefits,static benefits,grid benefits,comprehensive sustainability,and social benefits)and 30 corresponding secondary indicators.Secondly,it used a nine-level linguistic operator to quantify the relative importance of adjacent indica-tors,and it applied a recursive formula to compute subjective weights.The CRITIC method quantified indicator variability and conflict by calcu-lating the standard deviation and correlation coefficient,generating objective weights.Then,game theory integrated and optimized the two sets of weights by constructing an objective function that minimized the deviation between subjective and objective weights.The optimal combination coefficient was then determined to achieve a dynamic balance in weight allocation.Finally,a comprehensive benefit evaluation model was devel-oped based on cloud model theory.Expert rating data for each indicator were first normalized,and an inverse cloud generator computed the cloud numerical characteristics(expectation Ex,entropy En,and hyper-entropy He)to capture the inherent uncertainty of the data.Then,using the prede-termined combination weights of secondary indicators,the cloud numerical characteristics of primary indicators,and the overall evaluation were synthesized step by step.A forward cloud generator in Matlab generated a comprehensive benefit cloud map,and the effectiveness level was de-termined through spatial matching and the maximum closeness criterion.In addition,a case study on the Ziyunshan pumped storage power plant was conducted to validate the practical applicability of the proposed model. Results and Discussions The evaluation results of the comprehensive benefits of the Ziyunshan pumped storage power plant showed that its overall evaluation cloud diagram(Ex=7.026 0,En=0.749 4,He=0.271 6)closely aligned with the standard cloud diagram for"good overall ben-efits"(Ex=7.000 0,En=0.670 0,He=0.300 0),verifying the effectiveness of the constructed model.The analysis of key indicators revealed that the peak shaving and valley filling coal-saving benefit(Ex=8.400 0)fell within the good range,with an estimated annual reduction of 411 000 tons of coal consumption for thermal power generation,which verified the pumped storage power plants'pivotal role in load balancing and carbon re-duction.The black start capability(Ex=7.600 0)fell within the good benefit range,with an actual response time 75%shorter than that of conven-tional thermal power plants,which highlighted its technical advantage in enhancing grid resilience.However,the annual start-up frequency(Ex=5.600 0)reached only 68%of its designed value,reflecting the inadequate adaptability of dispatch strategies to load fluctuations.In terms of fi-nancial and economic evaluation,the loan repayment period(Ex=5.600 0)and asset-liability ratio(Ex=5.000 0)corresponded to a repayment term of 15 years and a high debt ratio of 65%,revealing long-term debt repayment pressure and capital structure risks.Regarding comprehensive sustainability benefits,the expectation values of environmental indicators,such as impacts on water quality,noise,and air,were all below 6.0,classifying them in the average benefit range.Although the construction wastewater reuse rate reached 85%,the suspended sediment concentra-tion in the reservoir area remained as high as 0.318 kg/m³,and noise levels in sensitive areas exceeded the standard by 10 dB,indicating the need for further optimization of environmental management measures.These results indicated that although pumped storage power plants demon-strated significant operational benefits,continuous improvements in environmental management measures were still required to comply with stricter environmental regulations. Conclusions The study concludes that the proposed evaluation method,which integrates game theory-based combined weighting with cloud model analysis,provides a scientifically rigorous and robust framework for assessing the comprehensive benefits of pumped storage power plants.Its successful application to the Ziyunshan pumped storage power plant case study confirmed that the evaluation results closely align with actual operational performance,validating the effectiveness and reliability of the approach.Accordingly,the integration of advanced weighting techniques with fuzzy quantitative modeling enhances the objectivity of the evaluation and provides meaningful insights for identifying key areas for improvement.These findings indicate that the method has significant potential for broader application in evaluating energy storage systems and other complex engineering projects,ultimately contributing to more informed decision-making and improved operational efficiency.关键词
抽水蓄能电站/博弈论/云模型/综合效益评价/社会网络分析法/序关系分析法/CRITIC法Key words
pumped storage power plant/game theory/cloud model/comprehensive benefit evaluation/social network analysis method/G1 method/CRITIC method分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
侯公羽,马骁赟,孙晓荣,张欣怡,陈钦煌,李乐,符欢欢,李唯伊..基于组合赋权-云模型的抽水蓄能电站综合效益评价[J].工程科学与技术,2026,58(1):18-30,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金委员会与神华集团有限责任公司联合资助重点项目(U1261212 （）
U1361210) （）
