中国农业信息2025，Vol.37Issue(3)：1-16,16.DOI:10.12105/j.issn.1672-0423.20250301
1981-2010年湖北省水稻物候期和产量变化分析
Analysis of changes in phenology and yield of rice in Hubei Province from 1981 to 2010
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose]Climate change,predominantly manifested as warming,has exerted substantial impacts on the phenology and yield of rice in Hubei Province.Quantifying the relative contributions of meteorological factors and rice varietal changes to variations in the length of the growing period is crucial for developing targeted agricultural adaptation strategies and improving the resilience and stability of rice production.[Method]Based on observational records of rice phenology and yield,together with meteorological data from 18 national agrometeorological stations in Hubei Province for the period 1981-2010,statistical analyses and related methods were employed to investigate the impacts of climate change and rice varieties on rice growth.[Result](1)During the rice growing season in Hubei Province,meteorological conditions underwent significant changes,characterized by varying degrees of increase in mean,maximum,and minimum air temperatures,accompanied by declines in precipitation and sunshine duration to different extents.(2)With in the study area,the rice growth period exhibited a slight advancement in the vegetative growth stage and a slight delay in the reproductive growth stage,with significant response differences observed among different rice varieties.Regarding rice yield,all sites showed dincreasing.(3)Rice variety was the primary factor influencing changes in the rice growth period,whereas the impact of meteorological factors was comparatively minor.(4)Optimizing management practices in rice production,including variety substitution,was crucial for regulating the growth period and yield of rice.[Conclusion]The growing period and yield of rice in Hubei Province are significantly influenced by climate change.Nevertheless,rice cultivar is identified as the primary factor affecting the duration of the growing period.Optimizing management practices in a timely manner can mitigate,to some extent,the adverse effects of climate change,thereby ensuring the security of rice production in Hubei Province.关键词
气候变化/湖北省/水稻物候期/水稻产量/气象要素/相对贡献度Key words
climate change/Hubei Province/rice phenology/rice yield/meteorological factors/relative contribution degree引用本文复制引用
马瑞晨,杨镕畅,张雅馨,张璇,郭亚会,吴浩,郝芳华..1981-2010年湖北省水稻物候期和产量变化分析[J].中国农业信息,2025,37(3):1-16,16.基金项目
湖北省自然科学基金"同化无人机遥感深度特征参数与WOFOST模型的水稻估产研究——以江汉平原典型区域为例"(2024AFA032),"数据—知识—模型协同驱动的高标准农田基础设施遥感监测方法研究"(2024AFB321) （2024AFA032）
地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室开放基金资助项目"协同无人机遥感与WOFOST模型的江汉平原水稻估产研究"(ZDSYS202401) （ZDSYS202401）
华中师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目"基于人工智能算法耦合无人机遥感与WOFOST模型的水稻田间管理措施优化"(CCNU25ai033),"基于无人机遥感的水稻长势监测技能培训科普工作"(CCNU25HD050),"智能天空地碳追溯与数据融合的区域零碳模式研究"(CCNU24JCPT02) （CCNU25ai033）
