北方农业学报2025，Vol.53Issue(6)：66-76,11.DOI:10.12190/j.issn.2096-1197.2025.06.06
基于MaxEnt模型的珍稀濒危植物独花兰种群适生区分布预测
Prediction of suitable habitat for the population of the rare and endangered plant Changnienia amoena based on the MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To identify the suitable habitat distribution of Changnienia amoena and provide a reference for the conservation of its wild resources.[Methods]Occurrence data and climatic factor data of C.amoena were collected.Based on the Maximum Entropy model(MaxEnt v3.4.4)and Geographic Information System software(ArcGIS 10.8),the major climatic factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of C.amoena were identified,the suitable habitats were classified,and the area of suitable habitats in the current period(1970-2000)and three future periods(2050s,2070s,2090s)under two scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585)was calculated.In addition,the centroid migration of the suitable habitats was predicted.[Results]The major climatic factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of C.amoena included precipitation of the warmest quarter,temperature seasonality,minimum temperature of the coldest month,mean diurnal temperature range,precipitation of the coldest quarter,precipitation of the wettest quarter,and mean temperature of the wettest region.In the current period,the total suitable habitat area of C.amoena was 2344356.93 km2,accounting for 24.42%of total national land area.Among these,highly suitable habitats covered 827705.50 km2(8.62%of the total national land area),mainly distributed in Sichuan,Chongqing,Hubei,Hunan,Anhui,Jiangsu,Jiangxi,Henan,and Guizhou Provinces and other regions.Moderately suitable habitat area and lowly suitable habitat area were 810 189.77 km2 and 706 461.66 km2,accounting for 8.44%and 7.36%of the total national land area,respectively.In the future periods,under the SSP126 scenario,the total suitable habitat areas of C.amoena in the 2050s,2070s and 2090s were 2499 091.89,2499 967.87,and 2549 461.27 km2,accounting for 26.03%,26.04%,and 26.56%of the total national land area,respectively.Under the SSP585 scenario,the total suitable habitat areas of C.amoena were 2 575 705.90,2 880 322.37,and 3 188 653.02 km2,accounting for 26.84%,30.01%and 33.22%of the total national land area,respectively.Under the SSP126 scenario,the centroid of C.amoena first shifted northward by 124.76 km from the current period to the 2050s,then southward by 41.03 km in the 2070s,and finally northward again by 27.43 km in the 2090s.Under the SSP585 scenario,the centroid of C.amoena first shifted northward by 167.38 km from the current period to the 2050s,northwestward by 148.47 km in the 2070s,and finally northward by 30.92 km in the 2090s.[Conclusion]Overall,the total suitable habitat area for C.amoena is expected to expand in the future,with its centroid migrating northward.关键词
独花兰/MaxEnt模型/气候因子/适生区分布Key words
Changnienia amoena/MaxEnt model/Climatic factors/Suitable habitat distribution分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈杰,崔艳丽,王仕宝,何志鹏,王艳龙,房宇,张慧,张艳艳,杨洁,李霞..基于MaxEnt模型的珍稀濒危植物独花兰种群适生区分布预测[J].北方农业学报,2025,53(6):66-76,11.基金项目
2023年汉中职业技术学院科研课题(2023YJN07) （2023YJN07）
2024年陕西省科技厅重点研发项目(2024NC-XCZX-44) （2024NC-XCZX-44）
2017年中医药公共卫生服务补助专项项目(财社[2017]66号) （财社[2017]66号）
2023年青年科研创新团队(汉职院发[2023]85号) （汉职院发[2023]85号）
