饲料研究2025，Vol.48Issue(24)：193-196,4.DOI:10.13557/j.cnki.issn1002-2813.2025.24.036
生猪产业链价格波动对养殖规模的影响
Effect of pig industry chain price fluctuations on breeding scale
摘要
Abstract
Based on monthly data from January 2012 to December 2024,this article used a vector autoregression(VAR)model to empirically analyze the effect of price fluctuations in the pig industry chain on thebreeding scale.The results showed that price fluctuations in the pig industry chain exerted a strong impact on the breeding scale,and this effect exhibited persistence.The time point impulse response function test showed that at the timing of price fluctuations,their impact on breeding scale was asymmetric and showed a negative shock.Variance decomposition revealed that price fluctuations in the pig industry chain contributed considerably to variations in breeding scale,with an overall trend of first declining and then rising.Breeding scale fluctuations contributed relatively little to themselves and exhibited a certain lag.The study shows that a production capacity regulation mechanism based on big data and forward-looking information can be established in the future,and that vertical collaboration and benefit-sharing models along the industry chain should be promoted,so as to support sustained,healthy and stable development of the pig industry.关键词
生猪产业链价格波动/养殖规模/VAR模型/脉冲响应函数Key words
pig industry chain price fluctuations/breeding scale/VAR model/impulse response function分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
钟铃..生猪产业链价格波动对养殖规模的影响[J].饲料研究,2025,48(24):193-196,4.基金项目
河南省高等教育教学改革研究与实践项目(项目编号:2021SJGLX782) （项目编号:2021SJGLX782）
