铁道运输与经济2026，Vol.48Issue(1)：110-119,10.DOI:10.16668/j.cnki.issn.1003-1421.20250320001
铁路运输行业碳定价机制设计与交易行为模拟研究
Design of Carbon Pricing Mechanism and Simulation of Trading Behavior for Railway Transportation Industry
摘要
Abstract
To explore the optimization path of the carbon market mechanism in the railway transportation industry,based on the carbon emission data of 18 railway bureaus from 2017 to 2020,a two-stage data envelopment analysis model was constructed to optimize carbon quota allocation.An incomplete information dynamic game theory was used to design the transaction pricing mechanism,and trading behavior was simulated by an Agent-Based model.The results demonstrate that there are significant differences in regional carbon quotas(2 126 400～7 221 100 tons),and the extreme difference in quotas between high-quota railway bureaus and low-quota railway bureaus is up to 3.4 times.The pricing of carbon trading is characterized by a gradient distribution of 41～45 yuan/t.This distribution is a function of the buyer and seller discount factors and marginal abatement costs.40%of high-quota and low-emission railway bureaus in the game equilibrium can maximize their revenue through the sale of quotas,while 46%of low-quota and high-emission bureaus demonstrate a preference for market-based instruments in reducing emissions.The established dynamic quota optimization,game pricing,and behavior simulation technology system provides a reference for the railway industry to build differentiated carbon markets and optimize emission reduction strategies.关键词
铁路运输/碳配额/碳定价/动态博弈/碳交易行为模拟Key words
Railway Transportation/Carbon Quota/Carbon Pricing/Dynamic Game/Carbon Trading Behavior Simulation分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
孙家振,卿芯,李敏,俞阳,祝仟,刘婕..铁路运输行业碳定价机制设计与交易行为模拟研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2026,48(1):110-119,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42101315) （42101315）
中国中铁股份有限公司科技研究开发计划项目(科研院2022-重大-01,科研院2023-重大-06) （科研院2022-重大-01,科研院2023-重大-06）
四川循环经济研究中心资助项目(XHJJ-2310) （XHJJ-2310）
