深圳大学学报（理工版）2026，Vol.43Issue(1)：47-56,10.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1249.2026.01047
考虑决策惯性的城市轨道交通多交路出行选择模型
Multi-route choice model of urban rail transit considering decision inertia
摘要
Abstract
Multi-route operation is a key feature of the networked operation system in China's urban rail transit.Investigating passengers'travel choice behavior under such conditions is crucial for understanding passenger travel patterns of and meeting diverse travel demands.Based on minimum-regret theory,this study incorporates the passenger heterogeneity in the perception of route attributes to construct a multi-scale hybrid utility-regret model that integrates utility maximization and regret minimization mechanisms.This model addresses the decision-making deviation between predicted passengers'travel behavior by traditional models and their actual travel behavior,a discrepancy arising from the passengers'route familiarity.By integrating tolerance thresholds and decision inertia,we propose a modeling approach for multi-route travel choice and estimate model parameters and validate performance using stated preference(SP)survey data from a representative case.The results show that passengers exhibit a tolerance threshold of 6.98 minutes for travel time attribute.Compared with the benchmark model,the proposed model demonstrates superior performance in terms of log-likelihood,Bayesian information criterion(BIC),and hit rate,thereby confirming its stronger data-fitting capability.Furthermore,the analysis of willingness-to-pay reveals that passengers are willing to accept additional time costs for improved service quality,confirming the model's effectiveness and practical applicability.关键词
城市轨道交通/路径选择/决策惯性/容忍阈值/多交路/混合效用-后悔模型Key words
urban rail traffic/route choice/decision inertia/tolerance threshold/multi-route/mixed utility-regret model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
巩亮,朱欣雨,许得杰,胡晨皓,杨阳阳..考虑决策惯性的城市轨道交通多交路出行选择模型[J].深圳大学学报（理工版）,2026,43(1):47-56,10.基金项目
National Natural Science Foundation of China(72261025) （72261025）
Innovation Foundation of Higher Education Institutions of Gansu Province(2021B-103) （2021B-103）
Joint Innovation Foundation of Lanzhou Jiaotong University and Tianjin University(2021056) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(72261025) （2021056）
甘肃省高等学校创新基金资助项目(2021B-103) （2021B-103）
兰州交通大学—天津大学联合创新基金资助项目(2021056) （2021056）
