水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(12)：1633-1646,14.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240812
考虑受水区需水时空不确定的调水工程水量调度与滚动优化研究
Research on water regulation and rolling optimization of water transfer projects considering the spatiotemporal uncertainty of water demand in water receiving areas
摘要
Abstract
Affected by climate change and human activities,the water demand process in the water-receiving areas of water transfer projects shows significant uncertainty.The traditional regulation theories and methods based on deter-ministic water demand exhibit a low execution rate of regulation plans,necessitating an urgent enhancement of its resilience.This study takes the Jiaodong Water Transfer Project as an example to conduct research on water regulation and rolling optimization considering the spatiotemporal uncertainty of water demand in the water-receiving areas.In the temporal dimension,data mining decomposition model(DDM),chance-constrained programming(CCP),and rolling optimization techniques were applied at three moments:historical conditions,during the formation of annual regulation scheme,and after a regulation period,following the technical chain of"qualitative analysis—quantitative distribution function analysis—rolling correction",to account for the temporal variability of water demand in the receiving areas.In the spatial dimension,the principal component analysis-analytic hierarchy process(PCA-AHP)water demand calculation method was used to subdivide the municipal-scale water demands into county-scale water demands,so as to prevent extreme water shortages in any specific county or city.For the annual water plan formula-tion,an annual water regulation model based on CCP and a rolling optimization regulation model were constructed.The models were calculated using iterative algorithms,and variable fuzzy evaluation was conducted for the regulation schemes.Based on the variable fuzzy evaluation,all schemes achieved an"excellent"rating except for the non-annual scheduling scheme under a 95%guarantee rate,which was rated as"good."Compared with conventional regu-lation schemes based on deterministic water demand,the regulation schemes proposed in this study can adapt to the spatiotemporal uncertainty of water demand in the water-receiving areas,balance the water shortage rates across cities in the water-receiving areas and achieve a 100%execution rate after rolling optimization.关键词
调水工程/水量调度/滚动优化研究/需水不确定性Key words
water transfer project/water regulation/rolling optimization/spatiotemporal uncertainty of water demand分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
甘甜,王超,蒋云钟,韩昆..考虑受水区需水时空不确定的调水工程水量调度与滚动优化研究[J].水利学报,2025,56(12):1633-1646,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52394234) （52394234）
中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目(WR0145B052021,WR110145B0122025) （WR0145B052021,WR110145B0122025）
江苏省水利科技项目(2022054) （2022054）
国家重点研发计划项目中国和韩国政府间联合研究项目(2024YFE0100100) （2024YFE0100100）
中国中铁股份有限公司科技研究开发计划项目(2025-重大-08) （2025-重大-08）
