同济大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.54Issue(2)：192-201,10.DOI:10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.25086
页岩断层摩擦滑动引发套管变形的概率
Probabilities of Shale Fault Friction and Slip on Inducing Casing Deformation
摘要
Abstract
Taking the N Pad in the Changning Block as a case study,friction experiments were conducted on shale fault gouges to investigate the frictional behavior of shale faults,followed by quantitative risk assessment(QRA)to evaluate the potential for fault slip.The experimental results indicate that friction coefficients of shale faults range from 0.50 to 0.75.The friction coefficient decreases with the increase of clay content and exhibits a progressive weakening trend with shear displacement.QRA results reveal that under a pore pressure perturbation of 15 MPa induced by hydraulic fracturing,the minimum fault slip probability reaches 64%.The fault slip probability increases significantly with the decrease of friction coefficient and the increase of pore pressure perturbation.To mitigate the risk of casing deformation,hydraulic fracturing operations should avoid faults with clay content exceeding 30%(friction coefficient<0.6)or maintain the injection pressure such that the pore pressure perturbation remains below 10 MPa,thereby reducing the likelihood of fault slippage.关键词
页岩气/套管变形/断层滑动/摩擦实验/滑动概率分析Key words
shale gas/casing deformation/fault slip/friction experiments/slip probability analysis分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
黄锐,张丰收,陈朝伟,安孟可,沈贤达..页岩断层摩擦滑动引发套管变形的概率[J].同济大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,54(2):192-201,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42320104003,42077247,42477168) （42320104003,42077247,42477168）
