水资源与水工程学报2025，Vol.36Issue(6)：77-85,104,10.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.06.10
1980-2024年盐城市蒸发量多尺度演变特征及LSTM模型预测
Multi-scale evolution characteristics and LSTM model prediction of evaporation in Yancheng City during 1980-2024
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of evaporation in the coastal plain transition zone,we analyzed the interannual,decadal,and intra-annual variations of evaporation across five water re-sources zones.Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test methods were used to process the daily E601 pan evaporation data in Yancheng City during 1980-2024.The results revealed that evaporation ex-hibited significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the study area,with Qubei Zone showing the maximum decadal decline(a decline of 17.49%from the 1980s to 2010s),Lixiahe Central Zone reaching its peak value(926.5 mm)in the 2020s,and Yinan Zone showing the highest interannual variability(Cv=0.124).Multi-scale cycles ranged from 3 to 16 years,with distinct 3-5 year cycles in Qubei Zone,and alternating patterns of 2-4 year and 6-8 year cycles in Lixiahe Central Zone.During 1980-2024,Lixia-he Central Zone showed a significant increasing trend(1.9 mm/year),while the Qubei and Doubei zones both underwent"increase-decrease-recovery"processes,with the Qubei Zone having the largest decadal amplitude and the Doubei Zone showing an overall declining trend.The intra-annual evaporation was highly concentrated,flood-season(May-September)evaporation accounted for 57.83%-59.62%of annual to-tals,with most zones in the 2020s exceeding 1980s levels,indicating heightened regional drought risks.LSTM models exhibited excellent applicability,with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)coefficient excee-ding 0.70,and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)less than 8.52%in verification period.Based on the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and recent recovery trend of evaporation,adaptive irrigation is recommen-ded for the Qubei Zone to address its high variability,and the strategy of enhanced flood-season water stor-age combined with rational annual allocation for the Lixiahe Central Zone to mitigate the evaporation stress.This study provides a scientific basis for water resources management and drought control in coastal plain regions.关键词
蒸发量/水资源分区/多尺度演变/Morlet小波分析/LSTM模型/沿海平原/盐城市Key words
evaporation/water resources zoning/multi-scale evolution/Morlet wavelet analysis/long short-term memory(LSTM)model/coastal plain/Yancheng City分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
潘道宏,王琪,宋月杭,薛亮,吴娟..1980-2024年盐城市蒸发量多尺度演变特征及LSTM模型预测[J].水资源与水工程学报,2025,36(6):77-85,104,10.基金项目
江苏省水利发展资金项目(苏财农[2025]19号) （苏财农[2025]19号）
盐城市水资源管理项目(JSZC-320900-RHHH-C2024-0106) （JSZC-320900-RHHH-C2024-0106）
