天津师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.45Issue(6)：45-55,11.DOI:10.19638/j.issn1671-1114.20250607
青藏高原五大河源区土地利用及景观生态风险多情景模拟
Multi-scenario simulation of land use and landscape ecological risk in the five river source areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
摘要
Abstract
In order to continuously monitor the evolution of landscape ecosystem in the five river source areas of the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau(the sources of the Yellow River,the Yangtze River,the Lancang River,the Nu River,and the Yarlung Zangbo River)and evaluate their landscape ecological risks,based on the land use data and landscape ecological risk evolution patterns of the study area in 1992,2002,2012 and 2022,the MOP-PLUS model was used to simulate the evolution process of land use under multiple scenarios and predict their landscape ecological risks in 2032.The results showed that:①From 1992 to 2022,the land use status in the studied area was basically stable,with grassland as the main land use type.Grassland degrada-tion and glacier melting were the most prominent ecological problems in the area.② The overall landscape ecological risk showed a decreasing trend from 1992 to 2022,primarily due to the implementation of ecological protection measures,such as the construction of ecological barriers and water source protection planning.③In various simulated scenarios in 2032,the cultivated land areas significantly increased under the scenario of farmland protection,and under the optimized landscape ecological risk scenario,there was a significant increase in the conversion of unused land to grasslands.④Optimizing land use under the landscape ecological risk optimization scenario was an effective way to achieve landscape ecological improve-ment.In summary,relevant departments in the five river source areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau should target high-risk areas,continuously control grassland degradation,strictly control the expansion of construction land,and guide land use planning based on the optimization of landscape ecological risks.关键词
土地利用/青藏高原五大河源区/景观生态风险/PLUS模型/多情景模拟Key words
land use/five river source areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau/landscape ecological risk/PLUS model/multi-scenario simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张科,王成武,王云飞..青藏高原五大河源区土地利用及景观生态风险多情景模拟[J].天津师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,45(6):45-55,11.基金项目
四川省科技计划资助项目(2023YFS0406). （2023YFS0406）
