新发传染病电子杂志2025，Vol.10Issue(6)：38-45,8.DOI:10.19871/j.cnki.xfcrbzz.2025.06.006
基于集成物种分布模型的广东省藁杆双脐螺分布特征及未来适宜区预测研究
Distribution characteristics and future suitable area prediction of Biomphalaria straminea in Guangdong Province based on integrated species distribution model
摘要
Abstract
Objective The purpose is to analyze the suitable habitat distribution of Biomphalaria straminea in Guangdong Province using current climate and land characteristics and to assess the changes in these habitats under future climate scenarios.Method We collected distribution data of B.straminea through field surveys,literature reviews,and search online database(https://www.gbif.org).Species distribution models,including support vector machine,random forest,generalized additive model,gradient boosting machine,and multivariate adaptive regression splines,were constructed using the R package"SSDM"and environmental factors.The best-performing model was selected to build an ensemble species distribution model(ESDM)to predict the suitable habitat distribution in Guangdong Province under current and future scenarios.Result Research revealed that that human footprint,isothermality and aspect are the most significant environmental and socio-economic factors driving the distribution of Biomphalaria straminea.Under current conditions,highly suitable habitats for B.straminea are concentrated in the Pearl River Delta and Chaoshan regions,covering an area of approximately 26 100km².Under future scenarios,the suitable range for B.straminea is predicted to expand significantly,and the average area of suitable habitats under the SSP3-7.0 scenario is consistently larger than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Conclusion Human activities,isothermality,and aspect are the main factors driving the invasion of Biomphalaria straminea.Simultaneously,future climate change will become a critical factor influencing its potential geographical distribution and diffusion trend,significantly increasing the risk of the snail's south-to-north spread.This urgently requires the government to formulate targeted and forward-looking monitoring and control strategies to prevent Schistosomiasis mansoni,for which Gastrocopta armilla acts as an intermediate host,from forming new endemic areas in Southern China.关键词
藁杆双脐螺/曼氏血吸虫病/集成物种分布模型/机器学习/适宜区域Key words
Biomphalaria straminea/Schistosomiasis mansoni/Climate change/Ensemble species distribution model/Machine learning/Suit ablearea分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
卢茜,何英俊,沈培林,陈攀爵,高世同..基于集成物种分布模型的广东省藁杆双脐螺分布特征及未来适宜区预测研究[J].新发传染病电子杂志,2025,10(6):38-45,8.基金项目
1.深圳市自然科学基金面上项目(JCYJ20220531103808020) （JCYJ20220531103808020）
2.深圳市龙岗区医疗卫生技术攻关扶持项目(LGKCYLWS2024-3) （LGKCYLWS2024-3）
