水资源与水工程学报2025，Vol.36Issue(6)：138-144,153,8.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.06.17
考虑新能源出力偏差的水风光互补短期优化调度模型研究
Short-term optimal scheduling model of hydro-wind-solar complementary power generation based on new energy output deviation
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid growth of the installed capacity of wind and solar power,these two new energy sources have surpassed hydropower on penetration rates in the power system,becoming the second and third largest power sources after thermal power.But,new energy power generation is characterized by sig-nificant volatility and uncertainty,resulting in a considerable deviation between the predicted output and the actual output,which poses a severe challenge to the real-time balance of the power system and the consumption of clean energy.Firstly,statistical indicators such as root mean squared error(ERMSE),mean absolute error(EMAE),mean error(EME),correlation coefficient(r),and prediction accuracy were adopted to analyze the deviation of solar and wind power output predictions.The results show that the average prediction accuracy of solar power generation is approximately 96%,and that of wind power is approximately 90%.Secondly,on this basis,a power output planning correction strategy based on pre-diction deviation correction was proposed,and a short-term optimal scheduling model for hydro-wind-solar complementary power generation with the goal of minimizing the source-load matching coefficient was constructed,which was then solved by the improved POA algorithm.Finally,a simulation analysis was carried out on a typical day during the flood season.The results indicate that the proposed model can ef-fectively harness the regulation flexibility of cascad hydropower stations and mitigate the output deviations of renewable energy sources.The research results can provide a theoretical support and practical refer-ence for the coordinated operation of water,wind and solar energy.关键词
梯级水电站群/新能源/出力偏差/出力计划修正/水风光互补/优化调度模型Key words
cascade hydropower stations/new energy/output deviation/output planning correction/hydro-wind-solar complementary power generation/optimal scheduling model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
苏华英,沈笛,邓佳莉,王榆楗,张验科,郭合斌..考虑新能源出力偏差的水风光互补短期优化调度模型研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2025,36(6):138-144,153,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52579010、52279064) （52579010、52279064）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2024JC003) （2024JC003）
