现代农业2025，Vol.50Issue(6)：17-32,16.
农业新质生产力对粮食供应链韧性的影响效应
Impact of the New Quality Rural Productive Forces on Grain Supply Chain Resilience
摘要
Abstract
Continuously promoting the development of the new quality rural productive forces is an important pathway to enhance grain supply chain resilience.Based on panel data from 31 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities(directly under the central government)in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)from 2014 to 2023,this study quantified grain supply chain resilience using the longitudinal and horizontal scatter degree method,analyzed its spatiotemporal differentiation and regional disparities through Kernel density estimation,traditional and spatial Markov chains,and the Dagum Gini coefficient.Compared seven types of machine learning models,the optimal SVR model was selected and integrated with the SHAP interpreter to reveal the driving effects of the new quality rural productive forces on grain supply chain resilience.The results indicated that:China's grain supply chain resilience increased year by year,consistently maintaining the pattern of main grain production areas＞production-marketing balance areas＞main grain consumption areas.The spatial distribution showed a trend of"expansion in the middle levels and reduction at both ends".Regional disparities narrowed annually,but multipolarization persisted.The contribution rate of inter-group differences fluctuated upward and became the main source of disparities in grain supply chain resilience.The output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishery services,urbanization rate,and agricultural carbon emissions exhibited positive driving effects,while the situation of agricultural labor mobility showed a negative inhibitory effect,and the contribution rates of other driving factors were relatively low.Interactions among driving factors also significantly impacted grain supply chain resilience.Accordingly,regional differentiated precision enhancement strategies should be implemented,and a support system for grain supply chain resilience should be constructed to promote overall resilience through the advancement of the new quality rural productive forces.关键词
农业新质生产力/粮食供应链韧性/纵横向拉开档次法/SVR模型/SHAP解释器Key words
the new quality rural productive forces/grain supply chain resilience/hierarchical and horizontal scatter degree method/SVR model/SHAP interpreter分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
魏峰,李美慧..农业新质生产力对粮食供应链韧性的影响效应[J].现代农业,2025,50(6):17-32,16.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"基于马克思劳动生产力理论的技术进步测度方法研究"(19BJL004). （19BJL004）
