西南交通大学学报2026，Vol.61Issue(1)：287-298,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20240208
粤港澳大湾区复合灾害系统脆弱性评估
Vulnerability Assessment of Composite Disaster Systems in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
摘要
Abstract
The interaction between natural disasters forms a complex disaster chain,making the losses caused by composite disasters more severe.To quantify the risk of disasters caused by complex disaster chains,explore the vulnerability level of regions to complex disaster chains,and effectively promote disaster risk prevention work,the triggering and superposition(reduction)effects of disaster chains were considered.A vulnerability assessment index system for composite disaster systems was constructed from three dimensions:exposure of disaster-bearing bodies,susceptibility,and adaptability of disaster-prone environments.A series of models for assessing the exposure degree of composite disaster-bearing bodies,disaster-prone environmental sensitivity,and adaptability was established through derivation.Subsequently,they were weighted to obtain a series of vulnerability assessment models for composite disaster systems.By taking the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example,the vulnerability index of rainstorm,landslide,and rainstorm-landslide disaster chain in the Greater Bay Area was calculated by combining convolutional neural network(CNN),coupling model of a parameter optimal geographical detector and analytic hierarchy process(OPGD-AHP),G1 method-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(G1-TOPSIS),and entropy weight-TOPSIS,and the corresponding vulnerability level zoning map was further drawn by using ArcGIS tools.The research results indicate that the vulnerability of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain is high and relatively high in the western region,medium in the central and western regions,as well as southwest and northeast regions,and low and relatively low in the central,central and southern regions,and eastern regions in the Greater Bay Area.There are not only overlapping relationships but also certain triggering and synergistic effects between the vulnerability of different single disaster types in the same region,especially between high vulnerability areas,as well as between low vulnerability areas.The results can be promoted and applied in the vulnerability assessment of composite disaster systems,providing technical support for risk assessment and disaster reduction and prevention of composite disaster systems in China.关键词
脆弱性评估/理论模型/复合灾害/暴雨-滑坡灾害链/粤港澳大湾区Key words
vulnerability assessment/theoretical model/composite disaster/rainstorm-landslide chain/Greater Bay Area分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王伟,宋月,黄莉,徐凤凰,石雨欣..粤港澳大湾区复合灾害系统脆弱性评估[J].西南交通大学学报,2026,61(1):287-298,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金委员会-联合国环境规划署(NSFC-UNEP)可持续发展国际合作科学计划重点项目(42361144873) （NSFC-UNEP）
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3001002) （2021YFC3001002）
国家自然科学基金项目(71974052) （71974052）
