中国当代儿科杂志2026，Vol.28Issue(1)：63-69,7.DOI:10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2502072
5岁以下儿童重症肺炎支原体肺炎预测模型的构建
Development of a predictive model for severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children younger than 5 years
李雅婷 1龙新月 1周俊 2张海燕2
作者信息
- 1. 武汉科技大学附属孝感医院儿科,湖北 孝感 432100||武汉科技大学医学部医学院,湖北 武汉 430070
- 2. 武汉科技大学附属孝感医院儿科,湖北 孝感 432100
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摘要
Abstract
Objective To establish a predictive model for severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia(SMPP)in children younger than 5 years.Methods Clinical data of 504 children younger than 5 years with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia admitted to Xiaogan Hospital of Wuhan University of Science and Technology from January to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.Based on discharge diagnosis,patients were classified into a non-SMPP group(n=345)and an SMPP group(n=159).Univariate analysis and LASSO regression were used to screen predictors of SMPP.The selected variables were then entered into a multivariable logistic regression to construct the prediction model,and its performance was evaluated.Results Multivariable logistic regression identified lung imaging findings(proportion with consolidation),duration of fever,high-sensitivity C-reactive protein,lactate dehydrogenase,creatine kinase,and lymphocyte-to-neutrophil ratio as predictors of SMPP(P<0.05).The model based on these six indicators achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.862(95%CI:0.824-0.900),with a sensitivity of 85.8%and a specificity of 77.4%.The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve,and Spiegelhalter's Z test indicated good calibration(P=0.313).Decision curve analysis showed a net benefit across a threshold probability range of 0.75%-100%,indicating high clinical applicability.Conclusions The predictive model based on lung imaging findings(proportion with consolidation),duration of fever,high-sensitivity C-reactive protein,lactate dehydrogenase,creatine kinase,and lymphocyte-to-neutrophil ratio shows good performance for predicting SMPP in children younger than 5 years.关键词
重症肺炎支原体肺炎/预测模型/列线图/儿童Key words
Severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia/Predictive model/Nomogram/Child引用本文复制引用
李雅婷,龙新月,周俊,张海燕..5岁以下儿童重症肺炎支原体肺炎预测模型的构建[J].中国当代儿科杂志,2026,28(1):63-69,7.
