中国中医急症2025，Vol.34Issue(12)：1831-1835,1848,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-745X.2025.12.004
老年重症肺炎营分证预测模型的构建与验证
Construction and Validation of a Predictive Model for Yingfen Syndrome in Elderly Patients with Severe Pneumonia
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To construct a risk factor prediction model for the core syndrome type of elderly severe pneumonia by retrospectively analyzing the distribution of syndrome types in elderly patients with severe pneumo-nia,so as to improve the early identification and treatment ability of elderly patients with severe pneumonia.Meth-ods:Clinical data of elderly patients with severe pneumonia admitted to the intensive care units(ICUs)of three affiliated hospitals of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine were collected retrospectively.The distribution char-acteristics of syndrome types were analyzed.Taking the development of core syndrome type as the outcome and multiple indicators as independent variables,least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression analysis was used to screen risk factors.R software was used to construct the prediction model and evaluate its per-formance.Results:The main syndrome types of elderly severe pneumonia were syndrome of phlegm-heat obstruct-ing lung(282 cases,100％),syndrome of Yingfen invaded by heat(231 cases,81.91％),syndrome of heat exuber-ance in lung and stomach(164 cases,58.16％),syndrome of deficiency of both qi and yin(109 cases,38.65％),and syndrome of interior invasion of pathogen and vital qi collapse(3 cases,1.06％).Syndrome of Yingfen invaded by heat was the core syndrome type in elderly patients with severe pneumonia.Detection of drug-resistant bacte-ria,D-dimer level,ICU length of stay,and CURB-65 score were independent risk factors for Syndrome of Yingfen invaded by heat(P＜0.05).Conclusion:Syndrome of Yingfen invaded by heat is an important core clinical syn-drome type of elderly severe pneumonia that requires high attention.Elderly patients with severe pneumonia com-plicated with drug-resistant bacterial infection,higher D-dimer level,longer ICU length of stay,and higher CURB-65 score are more likely to develop syndrome of Yingfen invaded by heat.关键词
老年重症肺炎/营分证/危险因素/LASSO回归/临床预测模型Key words
Elderly severe pneumonia/Yingfen syndrome/Risk factors/LASSO regression/Clinical prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
余云鹏,王永亮,杨丽娟,刘凤仪,运雅莉,马洪皓,王亚杰,徐红日..老年重症肺炎营分证预测模型的构建与验证[J].中国中医急症,2025,34(12):1831-1835,1848,6.基金项目
国家中医药管理局中医药创新团队及人才支持计划项目(ZYYCXTD-D-202208) （ZYYCXTD-D-202208）
"中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助"新教师启动基金项目(2025-JYB-XJSJJ046) （2025-JYB-XJSJJ046）
