浙江电力2026，Vol.45Issue(1)：34-47,14.DOI:10.19585/j.zjdl.202601004
考虑用户意愿的电动汽车集群可调度容量评估方法
A dispatch capacity assessment method for electric vehicle clusters considering user willingness
摘要
Abstract
To address how variable user participation willingness affects electric vehicle(EV)dispatchable capacity assessment,this paper proposes a novel assessment method incorporating user willingness.First,joint entropy of probability density functions of EV load data is analyzed to identify dates with similar charging patterns,while a neu-ral network predicts the probability distributions of initial charging times and initial state of charge(SOC)for future days.Second,a user participation willingness model is constructed by integrating four key factors—battery health status,remaining SOC,expected idle duration,and discharge electricity price incentives—using fuzzy logic rules to quantify response willingness.Finally,individual EV dispatch capacity is calculated subject to travel demand and idle duration constraints,followed by the development of an aggregate vehicle-to-grid(V2G)dispatchable capacity model for EV clusters.Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method accurately predicts EV charging demand,effectively quantifies user response willingness,and enables precise assessment of EV cluster dispatch capacity.关键词
多层感知器神经网络预测/模糊逻辑规则/车网互动/响应容量Key words
multilayer perceptron neural network prediction/fuzzy logic rules/V2G/response capacity引用本文复制引用
李振坤,胡焜,姚一聪..考虑用户意愿的电动汽车集群可调度容量评估方法[J].浙江电力,2026,45(1):34-47,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52177098) （52177098）
上海市科技计划项目(21010501200) （21010501200）
