重庆大学学报2026，Vol.49Issue(2)：46-54,9.DOI:10.11835/j.issn.1000-582X.2026.02.004
考虑测量误差的非马尔可夫Wiener过程内腐蚀预测
Internal corrosion prediction for non-Markov Wiener processes considering measurement errors
摘要
Abstract
The corrosion evolution of oil and gas transmission pipelines is highly complicated,and sufficient data on influencing factors are often difficult to obtain in actual operation.Additionally,traditional empirical models produce significant errors in long-term predictions.To more comprehensively characterize the dynamic characteristics associated with memory effects and measurement randomness in pipeline corrosion,this paper proposes a non-Markov Wiener process prediction model considering both measurement errors and historical dependency.Model parameters are estimated and updated using maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian inference.Based on weak convergence theory and the definition of first-passage failure time,an approximate analytical solution for the distribution of corrosion depth is derived,enabling predictive assessment of internal corrosion progression.Finally,monitoring data from the inner wall of a natural gas pipeline in the Chongqing Gas Mine are used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.关键词
油气集输管道/内腐蚀预测/非马尔可夫/测量误差/Wiener退化过程Key words
oil and gas transmission pipeline/internal corrosion prediction/non-Markov/measurement error/Wiener degradation process分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
陈界学,龙振东,刘翰,田洪军,董莎莎,何泉,尹爱军..考虑测量误差的非马尔可夫Wiener过程内腐蚀预测[J].重庆大学学报,2026,49(2):46-54,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52275518). Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(52275518). （52275518）
