地震地磁观测与研究2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：1-12,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-3246.2025.05.001
京津冀交界区域现今地震活动状态研究
Research on the current seismic activity in the border region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
摘要
Abstract
The historical earthquake disasters in the border region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei have been relatively severe.This paper focuses on the tectonic units and seismic structures of the border region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and adopts the seismicity methods to analyze the current intensity and state of regional seismic activity,and accordingly predicts the seismic situation in the study area over the next 15 years.Research has shown that seismic activity in the border region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei exhibits temporal and spatial differences.In the Beijing depression zone,the seismic risk is relatively low(magnitude 5).Since 2002,there has been an 18-year seismic lull(with no earthquakes of M≥2.5),and the strain has accumulated to 2.19×106 J½.The Xiadian-Daxing fault zone experienced an M 8 earthquake in 1679,with a future seismic risk of magnitude 5.Currently,the accumulated strain stands is 1.76×106 J½;but due to the prevailing low-magnitude seismic activity,the short-term seismic risk remains low.The Dachang-Wuqing depression zone is significantly affected by the Tangshan earthquake with a potential seismic risk of magnitude 6.Since 1978,strain energy has accumulated to 6.89×106 J½.At present,it is in a seismically inactive phase characterized by a high b-value(indicating a lower proportion of large earthquakes relative to small ones),and the short-term seismic risk is not high.The Langgu-Baxian depression zone suffered an M 6.5 earthquake in 1965 and still poses a recurrence risk of earthquakes around M 6 in the future.Currently,the accumulated strain energy is 1.03×106 J½,but tno signs of accelerated strain release have been observed,no signs of accelerated strain release have been observed.It is recommended to focus on strengthening monitoring and early warning systems for earthquakes above magnitude 4 in the Beijing depression zone and earthquakes around magnitude 6 in the Dachang-Wuqing and Langgu-Baxian depression zones in the medium and long term.关键词
京津冀地区/地震活动状态/地震活动性参数/地震风险Key words
the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region/state of seismic activity/seismicity parameters/seismic risk引用本文复制引用
李莹甄,杨耀宇,范秀丽,费芸,沈军..京津冀交界区域现今地震活动状态研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2025,46(5):1-12,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(项目编号:42172253) （项目编号:42172253）
