地理空间信息2026，Vol.24Issue(1)：34-40,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-4623.2026.01.008
基于三生空间的三江源土地利用情景模拟和冲突测度
Land-use Scenario Simulation and Conflict Measurement in the Three River Source Area Based on Production-Living-Ecological Space
摘要
Abstract
Based on land-use data in 2010,2015 and 2020,we used PLUS and PFCI models to predict the natural growth scenario of land-use in the Three River Source Area for 2035 and calculate the relative conflicts,in order to better coordinate the conflicts among various types and provide references for the sustainable development of the Three River Source Area.The results show that①the living space and ecological space have increased,but production space is reduced.Concretely,the construction living space grows the fastest in the land-use change,other ecological space reductions are most pronounced,the rest of spatial type does not change significantly.②The significant relative conflicts are mainly reflected in agricultural production space,grassland ecological space,water ecological space and construction living space,among them,the relative conflict of construction living space is the most significant.③The strategy analysis of relative conflict shows that agricultural production space should be mainly distributed in Guinan County,grassland ecological space is mainly concentrated in Zhiduo County,Tanggulashan Town and Zhiduo County are fit to develop water ecological space,Maqin County and Nangqian County mainly suitable for developing forest ecological space,the construction living space should be mainly developed in the Gonghe County.关键词
三江源地区/土地利用预测/空间冲突/PLUS模型/PFCI模型Key words
the Three River Source Area/land-use prediction/spatial conflict/PLUS model/PFCI model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李文,张婷玉,郭晓东,王梅梅..基于三生空间的三江源土地利用情景模拟和冲突测度[J].地理空间信息,2026,24(1):34-40,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42201198) （42201198）
自然资源部陆表系统与人地关系重点实验室开放基金资助项目(LBXT2023YB09) （LBXT2023YB09）
2024年甘肃省高校青年博士资助项目(2024QB-001). （2024QB-001）
