航空学报2026，Vol.47Issue(2)：124-135,12.DOI:10.7527/S1000-6893.2025.32111
可靠性寿命高效分析方法及在涡轮轴中的应用
Efficient analysis method of reliability lifetime and its application in turbine shaft
摘要
Abstract
In order to ensure the safe service of aero structure,it is of great significance to evaluate the reliability life-time under the constraint of extremely small target failure probability.However,the computational efficiency of the ex-isting reliability lifetime analysis methods is difficult to meet the requirements of reliability lifetime analysis under high re-liability requirements in engineering effectively.For this issue,a sequential stratified importance sampling method based on the first failure instant is proposed to solve reliability lifetime.Firstly,a sequential stratified exploration strat-egy for the rare failure domain with the extremely small target failure probability is established,which transforms the exploration problem of the rare failure domain into a gradual exploration problem of a series of failure domains with large probabilities,and it can effectively reduce the difficulty of obtaining the rare failure domain information.Secondly,the method for hierarchically constructing the explicit rule importance sampling density function is proposed to reduce the difficulty and computational complexity of obtaining the importance sample in the rare failure domain,which im-proves the computational efficiency for solving the reliability lifetime.Finally,in order to reduce the number of model evaluations,the Kriging surrogate model is embedded into the proposed sequential stratified importance sampling method,and an adaptive update strategy guided by misjudgment of the first failure instant is designed,which improve the efficiency of the sequential stratified importance sampling method to solve the reliability lifetime under the constraint of the extremely small target failure probability.The results show that,for the test function,the proposed method re-duces the number of model evaluations and computational time by up to 45.4％and 99.6％,respectively,compared with the state-of-the-art methods.For a certain type of aero-engine turbine shaft structure,the proposed method re-duces the number of model evaluations and computational time by up to 40.2％and 90.7％,respectively,compared with the state-of-the-art methods.关键词
可靠性寿命/可靠性分析/重要抽样/代理模型/涡轮轴Key words
reliability lifetime/reliability analysis/importance sampling/surrogate model/turbine shaft分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
陆艺鑫,吕震宙,李恒朝..可靠性寿命高效分析方法及在涡轮轴中的应用[J].航空学报,2026,47(2):124-135,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(12572141) National Natural Science Foundation of China(12572141) （12572141）
