摘要
Abstract
This study is based on the long-term runoff observation data from 1964 to 2023 at the Gaoyao Hydrological Station on the Xijiang River and the Shijiao Hydrological Station on the Beijiang River.It employs linear trend estimation,moving average,and Mann-Kendall(M-K)abrupt change detection methods to systematically analyze the evolution patterns of the runoff in the two rivers.The research results show that:①The runoff in the basin exhibits significant interdecadal oscillations,with the wet and dry cycles similar to the precipitation cycles.② The runoff of the Xijiang River shows a weak decreasing trend,while the Beijiang River does not show a significant trend change.③ The M-K abrupt change detection reveals that the abrupt change points at the Gaoyao Station are temporally associated with the reinforcement of the embankment project,the occurrence of extreme flood events,and the period of frequent extreme climate events;the abrupt change points at the Shijiao Station correspond to key nodes such as flood events and the operation of the Fangjiang Flood Storage and Detention Area,but none of them reach the 0.05 significance threshold.The study indicates that the non-stationary evolution of the runoff in the Xijiang and Beijiang Rivers is a combined response to climate oscillations and human activities.关键词
珠江/西、北江/径流量/趋势分析Key words
Pearl River Basin/Xijiang River and Beijiang River/runoff/trend analysis分类
天文与地球科学
