大气科学学报2026，Vol.49Issue(1)：76-93,18.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20251104009
西北太平洋海洋热浪研究进展
Recent advances in marine heatwaves in the northwestern Pacific
摘要
Abstract
Marine heatwaves(MHWs)—discrete,prolonged episodes of anomalously warm ocean temperatures—have increased markedly in frequency,duration,and intensity under ongoing global warming.These events exert profound ecological,biogeochemical,and socioeconomic impacts,particularly in regions characterized by strong air-sea coupling and pronounced climate variability.The northwestern Pacific has emerged as one of the global hotspots of MHW activity,owing to its complex circulation systems,energetic mesoscale and submesoscale dynamics,and sensitivity to basin-scale climate modes.Over the past decade,rapid scientific progress has substan-tially advanced understanding of MHW characteristics,driving mechanisms,ecosystem impacts,and future evolu-tion in this climatically critical region.Observational evidence from satellite products,reanalysis datasets,and in situ measurements reveals pronounced spatial heterogeneity in MHW occurrence across the northwestern Pacific.High-intensity and recurrent events frequently appear in the Kuroshio and its extension,the subtropical-subpolar frontal zones,and marginal seas such as the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.These regions are characterized by strong background currents,active eddy fields,and sharp frontal gradients that regulate horizontal advection,verti-cal heat redistribution,and upper-ocean thermal structure.Consequently,MHWs in this region exhibit strong sea-sonal,interannual,and decadal variability,as well as substantial diversity in vertical structure,ranging from surface-intensified warming to subsurface-intensified and vertically coherent events. The mechanisms governing MHWs in the northwestern Pacific arise from complex interactions between local atmospheric forcing and remote climate influences.Local processes—including anomalies in radiative fluxes,latent and sensible heat exchange,mixed-layer stratification,and wind-driven Ekman transport—play critical roles in the initiation and persistence of warm anomalies.Oceanic processes such as warm-water advection,eddy-induced heat convergence,and anomalously stable stratification further amplify or prolong MHW events.In addition,large-scale climate modes influence MHW occurrence through atmospheric teleconnections that modify surface winds,cloud cover,ocean circulation,and thermocline structure.Increasing evidence highlights the importance of multiscale coupling among climate modes,internal ocean variability,and mesoscale dynamics in shaping the spatially com-plex and vertically nature of MHWs. The ecological and biogeochemical consequences of MHWs in the northwestern Pacific are increasingly well documented.Observed impacts include coral bleaching,habitat degradation,shifts in species distributions,reductions in primary productivity,disruptions to fisheries,and alterations of trophic pathways.Several extreme and persistent MHWs during the late 2010s have caused long-lasting ecological disturbances,underscoring the vulnerability of regional ecosystems.Moreover,the concurrence of MHWs with other climate-driven stressors,such as ocean deoxygenation,acidification,and extreme rainfall-runoff events,raises concerns about compound and cascading impacts under continued warming. Advances in modeling have improved understanding of both the predictability and projected evolution of MHWs.Seasonal forecasting systems show moderate predictive skill for certain MHW types,particularly those linked to ENSO-related atmospheric patterns or decadal background states.High-resolution coupled models in-creasingly resolve mesoscale processes,although biases in stratification,boundary currents,and air-sea feedbacks remain.Multi-model projections consistently indicate substantial future intensification of MHWs across the north-western Pacific,including increased spatial extent,stronger thermal anomalies,and more frequent long-duration e-vents.Nevertheless,uncertainties persist due to differences in model representations of ocean circulation,internal variability,and interactions across spatial scales. Despite considerable progress,key knowledge gaps remain.Limited subsurface observations restrict under-standing of the three-dimensional structure of MHWs,while challenges persist in quantifying the relative contribu-tions of mesoscale and submesoscale processes,attributing MHW drivers across time scales,and assessing ecologi-cal responses to multiple concurrent stressors.Addressing these challenges will require expanded and sustained ob-servations,improved representation of regional processes in models,integration of physical and biogeochemical frameworks,and the incorporation of emerging machine-learning approaches for MHW detection and prediction. Overall,recent advances have significantly enhanced understanding of marine heatwave variability,mecha-nisms,impacts,and future risks in the northwestern Pacific.Continued development of coordinated observational networks,high-resolution modeling,and interdisciplinary research will be essential for improving predictive capa-bility and supporting effective adaptation and ecosystem management strategies in this rapidly changing ocean re-gion.关键词
海洋热浪/西北太平洋/时空特征/驱动机制/海洋生态/未来预估Key words
marine heatwaves/northwestern Pacific/spatiotemporal characteristics/driving mechanisms/marine e-cology/future projections引用本文复制引用
董昌明,张鑫源,曹茜,王胤迪,滕芳园,薛静远..西北太平洋海洋热浪研究进展[J].大气科学学报,2026,49(1):76-93,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42192562) （42192562）
