农林经济管理学报2026，Vol.25Issue(1)：52-63,12.DOI:10.16195/j.cnki.cn36-1328/f.2026.01.06
极端气温对农业产业链韧性的影响研究
Impact of extreme temperatures on resilience of agricultural industry chain
摘要
Abstract
Based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2022,the entropy weight method was used to measure the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain,and the Tobit model and the mediation effect model were constructed to empirically analyze the effect and the impact mechanism of extreme temperatures on the resilience.The results show that the effect of extreme high temperatures on the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain is in a positive U-shaped distribution.When the extreme high temperature does not exceed the threshold of 3.42,it will weaken the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain.However,once it exceeds this threshold,the effect turns from negative to positive.The impact of extreme low temperatures is not significant.The mechanism analysis shows that extreme high temperatures significantly enhance the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain by promoting agricultural technological progress,and the effect on agricultural technological progress is also in a positive U-shaped distribution.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain in the eastern and central regions is more significantly affected by extreme high temperatures.In different grain production functional areas,the degree of its impact ranks from high to low in the order of major sales areas,major production areas,and areas with balanced production and sales.In regions with a lower degree of industrial structure upgrading,the impact is more prominent.Therefore,it is necessary to establish a framework policy that prioritizes prevention and control while taking adaptation as a secondary measure.It is necessary to promote agricultural technological progress from aspects such as biotechnology,farming techniques,and temperature detection and early warning technologies.Meanwhile,it is of vital significance to accelerate the digital transformation of the agricultural industrial chain and build a smart agricultural system,and implement precise policies based on local conditions,taking into account the climate conditions and resource endowments of different regions.关键词
极端高温/极端低温/农业产业链韧性/农业技术进步/粮食生产功能区Key words
extreme high temperature/extreme low temperature/resilience of the agricultural industry chain/agricultural technological progress/grain production functional areas分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
覃朝晖,任磊,丁志国,谭其佳..极端气温对农业产业链韧性的影响研究[J].农林经济管理学报,2026,25(1):52-63,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD124)和国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BMZ138) （22&ZD124）
